In March, demand rebounded to the January growth trajectory and managed to exceed the levels of last years. All industries, led by Construction Materials, demonstrate a healthy…

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In order to exclude the increases in cost base and account for correspondingly higher baseline estimates, I decided to analyze the spot rate premiums during the Easter window relative to their pre-holiday baselines (average of spot rate index from 6 weeks before till 3 weeks before Easter week). The escalation is stark. In 2023, the market reached a seasonal high at a 10% premium. In 2024, the peak value rose to 12%, followed by 14% in 2025. This year, the 2026 Easter season saw spot premiums reach 19% over the mentioned 4-week baseline. Interestingly, the data suggests that capacity during the week after Easter (Post-Easter week on the chart below) remains strained or even worsens, creating a sticky, high-cost plateau that dissipates slowly over the next few weeks.

What is driving these exponential year-over-year surges? As we have explored in our recent articles, the foundational issue is a continuous erosion of available market capacity. The European road transport sector has been running increasingly lean, as carriers are optimizing their new fleet purchases amid shrinking margins. When the demand even slightly increases, like this year, the “overflow buffer” of available capacity quickly evaporates. When a major holiday hits and a significant portion of the driver workforce takes several days or weeks of leave, the relative drop in available trucks hits much harder against an already constrained market. Carriers are forced to reject contracted volumes they simply cannot cover, pushing a wave of urgent freight onto an increasingly algorithm-driven spot market that is starved for trucks and quickly reacts to capacity changes. In this low-elasticity environment, bidding wars intensify rapidly.

Of course, not the whole massive leap to a 19% premium in 2026 can be explained by capacity constraints alone. This year, rising fuel prices acted as a hidden catalyst. Historically, fluctuations in fuel prices do not instantly translate into spot market volatility, as it is driven by capacity and demand balance far more than by fuel prices. But I still consider that this year’s fuel price shock also played a role in carriers' state of mind and shifted their baselines for spot rate calculations higher. Knowing capacity was scarce, I suspect that some of them preemptively priced in the fuel risks, resulting in over-inflated spot rates for last-minute holiday loads.

The only way for shippers to avoid similar holiday spot price shocks in the future is to shift the focus to early-volume pre-holiday front-loading and securing binding capacity commitments well before the holiday panic sets in.

Breaking News: Germany announces fuel tax cut

In response to soaring energy costs driven by the US-Iran conflict, the German ruling coalition has proposed today a two-month-long reduction in the energy tax on diesel and gasoline by approximately 17 cents per liter, with the loss of tax revenue to be potentially offset by windfall taxes on profits of the businesses in the refining and wholesale fuel trade sectors. Pending a fast-tracked legislative approval process through the German parliament, these measures are anticipated to enter into force within days or weeks and should have a measurable effect on transport costs in Central Europe.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

The capacity index, although based on transactional data, aims to show and explain the overall market sentiment regarding available capacity. Analogously, it rather describes the climate than the weather.

In this analysis, I will focus on recent developments, differences from past periods and future implications. For the full historical discussion and narrative, please revisit the previous article:

The US trucking market faces the highest available capacity reduction in years, as confirmed by the current index value of week 14, which marks a 3-year low. The trend line exhibits a downward tendency, given last years’ high readings, a stabilization or even rather unexpected significant rebounds won’t change one evident fact: The trucking capacity in the US structurally changed after years of capacity exceeding demand. All three components of the capacity index confirm this trend: reductions in offers on the spot market, increases in tender-rejection rates, and sharp declines in new vehicle registrations in the US manifest the shift that began at the end of 2025.

The million-dollar question is, at what level will it stabilize? Will the Strait of Hormuz closure dampen transportation demand and mitigate further potential capacity reductions? In this environment, it is not easy to answer or predict; however, the effect on the market is clear for a potential capacity index value around 100. On one hand, transport prices will adjust, and spot prices will lead. On the other hand, an index value of 100 will still ensure market functionality and all goods will be moved, but at different price levels. Shippers with efficient processes to limit carriers’ downtimes will likely benefit from lower cost increases.

In Europe, in contrast, we left the typical soft period and are approaching the busy period, with numerous public holidays and usual seasonal capacity constraints. However, the trend line shows a downward slope, and it has accelerated recently. Year-on-year, accounting for the Easter-based shift in weeks, we are currently 7 index points down. So far, there is no measurable and demand-dampening effect on the capacity index due to the Middle East turmoil.

Recent news, such as the bankruptcy and liquidation of the French branch of Ziegler Group and the associated closure of numerous sites, highlights the challenging financial situation carriers are still in. The unfortunate ripple effects of this bankruptcy could eliminate more trucking capacity than Ziegler in France accounted for.

The financial pressure based on high diesel prices and the corresponding liquidity gap on the carrier side will prevent them from making fleet investments, which is also true for the US. My earlier expressed hopes in a capacity-mitigating increasing fleet investment literally sank in the Strait of Hormuz.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

Europe’s reliance on oil imports and limited resources to mitigate the impact has pushed the weighted average diesel fuel price up to an astonishing EU average of €2.07 per liter last week, and this week’s threshold will likely be even higher. With fuel accounting for 25-30% of transport costs basis, commercial carriers and logistics providers faced extreme margin compression, forcing them to engage in immediate and aggressive upward rate correction negotiations with shippers. This is especially true in the contracted freight market, where normally fuel floaters change in a month or even in a quarter after the actual changes in fuel prices.

To prevent a deterioration of critical supply chains and consumer price inflation, European governments have continued drafting and implementing emergency mitigation measures over the past two weeks. However, constrained by national budget realities, the responses have been highly fractured, creating a patchwork of regulations across the European markets.

Staying away from the expensive tax subsidies, Germany and Austria chose a path of stricter regulations aimed at the mechanics of retail and wholesale fuel pricing instead of direct fiscal measures. The Austrian government implemented a severe tightening of its fuel price rules on March 16. Petrol stations are now legally restricted to increasing prices exclusively on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays at exactly 12:00 noon. Germany followed the example on March 27, when the government successfully passed a Fuel Policy Package through the Bundesrat. Entering into force just ahead of the Easter holidays, the legislation structurally restricts petrol stations to a single daily price increase at noon and introduces complex anti-cartel measures aimed at increasing competition on local wholesale and retail fuel markets.

Unlike regulatory solutions above, Poland has deployed heavy fiscal intervention. While a massive fuel VAT reduction (23% to 8%) and retail price caps go live tomorrow, March 31, this headline relief is largely an illusion for commercial carriers. The only operational savings for them come from the excise duty cuts that took effect today, March 30, yielding a slight net reduction of just 28 groszy (~6.5 ct.) per liter for hauliers. To fund these measures, Poland is concurrently implementing a windfall tax on energy corporations.

Across the rest of the continent, the policy patchwork introduced over the last two weeks presents operational complexities for cross-border logistics:

Similarly to Poland, Spain announced an expansive crisis package on March 24, reducing its fuel VAT from 21% to 10% (effective March 22) alongside an extraordinary and temporary cashback subsidy of 20 cents per liter for diesel used in commercial transport activities until 30^th of June.

Greece’s government decided to directly subsidize diesel for transport and agricultural sectors at the distribution level by €0.16 per liter before VAT in April and May.

Taking a middle-ground approach, Sweden announced a 4.7-billion-SEK relief package on March 23 to reduce petrol and diesel taxes to the EU minimum, allowing for 30-40 eurocent discounts at the pump. However, unlike the immediate interventions seen in Southern and Eastern Europe, this relief will not enter into force until May 1.

France, UK, Italy and Bulgaria have rejected untargeted consumer subsidies and direct fiscal measures. France announced measures on March 23 focused on easing payroll levies and extending tax deadlines specifically for the transport sector. The UK (March 24) prioritized aggressive anti-profiteering frameworks. Italy enacted emergency decrees on March 19, deliberately carving out €100 million in tax credit mechanisms exclusively for transport and logistics enterprises.

Meanwhile, Romania adopted a severe emergency ordinance on March 26 (in force from April 1) that legally caps commercial markups and heavily restricts the export of diesel with massive financial penalties, without any direct fiscal measures.

So, while these rapid national interventions are designed to keep the economy and services providers moving, their variance creates severe secondary friction for the road freight market, when at the pump prices in transit countries might be significantly lower than the wholesale prices at the home base country, sparkling “fuel tourism” and introducing potential for sub-optimal routing distance choices, indirectly harming network efficiency, while the need to apply for targeted government rebate schemes increases the administrative load and introduces an additional degree of risk from processing errors. Overall, the absence of a uniform approach in these measures decreases market transparency and complicates the fair spread of fuel price risks between shippers and carriers.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

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The following chart illustrates the dynamics between spot and contract prices across all monitored markets, covering data from more than 100 country-to-country relationships in Europe.

Each data point represents the difference between spot and contracted prices (Index 100) for a specific week. Seasonality plays a role here: in week 51 of 2024, spot prices surged 22.7% above contracted levels, repeated by a 22.2% increase in the same week of 2025

2024 faced significant shipping challenges, with capacity constraints after Easter pushing spot prices above 2023 levels amid high carrier rejections, prompting a shift of contracted shipments to the spot market. After a brief pause in early 2025, prices resumed rising during the second quarter’s holiday season, though there was some relief in late 2025. International markets are driving these trends, with higher premiums than in domestic markets.

Q1 of 2026 confirmed this persistent upward trend, as spot prices, on average across Europe, remained above contracted prices and their 2025 counterparts.

The market will soon experience more pronounced exposure to the self-reinforcing price-increase cycle, driven by seasonal demand and sudden cost-increase factors (high energy prices). This self-reinforcing cycle is best described as follows: Shippers are shifting volumes away from the spot market to avoid the higher prices there. However, the contracted segment’s prices fail to reflect current operating costs, limiting available capacity in this market segment (as reflected in our capacity metrics, such as contracted load rejections), and this is further exacerbated by moderate increases in transportation demand. Consequently, many shipments will be moved to the spot market in April and May due to urgency, further inflating prices.

For two weeks prior to Easter, we expect the spot premium to climb towards 14%. Quick increases in contracted rates due to fuel adjustments, as seen last week, will mitigate spot price premiums. However, the seasonal uptick in demand pressure remains intact and will likely push the spot premiums to last year’s levels. A short-term dampening of transportation demand in response to the negative effects of the Middle East conflict is unlikely.

In summary, the coming weeks will be influenced by tightening capacity and surging energy costs, pushing spot rate premiums to last year’s levels or even beyond.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation

The effects of this macroeconomic shock have hit European pumps with unprecedented velocity, heavily assisted by multiplying factors of national excise and tax structures. Below is a breakdown of the relative and absolute commercial diesel price changes across key European markets between Weeks 9 and 11:

The reason for large variance in diesel price developments across the major European countries partially lies in differences in local policies.

Germany, France, Denmark, and Sweden have rejected immediate fuel-price shields or direct tank rebates, prioritizing budget conservation and instead relying on antitrust authorities to monitor retail price hikes. The Spanish, Italian, and Austrian governments have expressed a more cautious approach and are considering tax-cut measures, but have implemented none yet.

Other countries are using a combination of direct regulation of prices or profit margins for the fuel market (Belgium, Slovenia, Croatia) or indirect influence, like Poland and Hungary in their approach of mitigating retail cost increases via state-controlled market entities.

The differences in policies sparked intense cross-border “fuel tourism”, particularly from German commercial operators to Poland seeking to capture arbitrage savings of up to €0.50-0.60 per liter, which is draining Western Poland’s supply hubs.

The Romanian government extended a specific, targeted support scheme that provides a direct financial grant of RON 0.85 per liter of diesel exclusively for registered road transport and distribution operators.

Variances in measurement lead us to a more fragmented and dynamic European market, where fuel prices, rules, and policies change overnight. To understand the true cost effects, we mapped these macro price surges directly onto operational logistics. Leveraging the Transporeon TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) Model, we analyzed how the recent spikes alter the fundamental economics for three specific European lanes:

• Poland to Germany (Poznan to Essen): On this roughly 765 km route, the extreme fuel price surges in Germany and Poland have pushed the calculated fuel share of total costs from 24.6% up to 28.4% and drove a 5.3% increase in total operating costs. The baseline rate calculation now requires an absolute increase of ca. €62 per trip to compensate for the increase in fuel costs.

• Spain to Netherlands (Zaragoza to Rotterdam): Covering over 1,515 km, the calculated fuel’s share of operating costs on this lane has jumped from 25.3% to 28.1%, translating to a 3.9% rise in total costs. Consequently, the February benchmark rate needs a ~€72 upward total correction.

• Italy to United Kingdom (Brescia to Manchester): Despite being the longest lane in our sample at nearly 1,680 km, the milder localized fuel surges resulted in a smaller relative shift: calculated fuel share increased from 23.4% to 25.1%, causing only a 2.3% total cost bump. Applied to a higher base rate, this dictates an ~€84 absolute rate increase.

These figures highlight how rapidly geopolitical shocks can change lane-level costs. As fuel policies and pump prices literally change overnight, we are utilizing our TCO algorithms across shipper networks to cut through the noise. In such a dynamic market, having an objective, data-driven baseline is the only way to determine which rate adjustments are genuinely fair for all parties involved, instead of applying one-size-fits-all solutions.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

In February, demand gently disappointed with a rather low value compared to 2023 and 2024, but managed to exceed the levels of 2025. Chemical, Automotive, Metal & Steel and …

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However, planning and moving goods across Swiss road borders requires some degree of understanding of network dynamics. Following a period of relative relief in 2024, recent data indicates that border crossing delays are rebounding to high levels again. Using exclusive data from Transporeon’s Real-Time Visibility products, we analyzed millions of tracking events to uncover exactly what shippers and carriers are experiencing.

While Switzerland has numerous large and small border crossings, commercial freight traffic is heavily concentrated at a few. For this analysis, we isolated the five busiest commercial road gateways based on historical heavy goods vehicle volumes. These crossings handle the lion’s share of transit and import/export goods movement:

1. Saint-Louis - Basel (France/CH): The heavy commercial node for Western inbound traffic.

2. Weil am Rhein - Basel (Germany/CH): The undisputed primary artery for the North-South corridor coming from Germany.

3. Gottmadingen - Thayngen (Germany/CH): Another vital gateway to Germany.

4. Maslianico - Chiasso (Italy/CH): The primary southern anchor feeding the Gotthard route.

5. Neydens - Geneve (France/CH): The high-volume artery for southwestern Switzerland and France.

A note on methodology: Calculating border delays in logistics can be misleading if simple 24-hour averages are used, as empty nighttime borders and closed truck crossings might mathematically pull down the overall figures. To provide a true reflection of driver experience, the data from Transporeon Real-Time Visibility was strictly filtered to include only active business hours (06:00 to 20:00) from Monday through Friday. Nighttime and weekend crossings were excluded. By isolating these specific parameters and focusing on the five highest-volume commercial gateways, we gain a much clearer observational lens into the structural realities of the Swiss freight network.

The immediate observation from the Real-Time Visibility data is the severe directional imbalance. Simply put, traffic flowing into Switzerland waits significantly longer than traffic flowing out.

This discrepancy is rooted in the structural differences between import and export procedures. Inbound freight faces rigorous import checks, temporary payment of customs duties and VAT, and the physical processing of transport declarations if they were not submitted in advance via digitized systems. Conversely, exiting the country is a much lower-friction process. In 2025, inbound wait times average 42 minutes, while outbound freight wait times average 25 minutes.

When analyzing average waiting times over a three-year horizon (2023–2025, see chart below), a V-shaped trend emerges. In early 2024, the network experienced a notable easing of congestion. Average waiting times to enter Switzerland dropped significantly across all border points, an improvement likely driven by Switzerland’s abolition of industrial import tariffs on January 1, 2024, and the scaled rollout of digitized customs systems, which enabled smoother administrative clearances.

However, this administrative relief was soon outpaced by the return of physical volumes. As we moved deeper into 2025, average waiting times were steadily climbing back to the higher levels seen in 2023. Today, the network average has crept back up to roughly 34 minutes, and peak season autumn figures are pushing beyond that.

For a more tactical and tactile understanding of how these bottlenecks behave, it is essential to know how delays fluctuate throughout the standard working week.

Looking at the weekday percentiles, we find the weekly transport trends:

• Inbound traffic is more congested on Basel crossings on Mondays. At the Saint-Louis – Basel border point 10% of trucks are waiting for two hours or more on Monday. This is a classic symptom of the weekend heavy vehicle driving ban clearing out, creating a massive Monday morning freight backlog waiting to enter the country.

• While Mondays are highly volatile for Basel, other borders see their congestion peak mid-week. Gottmadingen - Thayngen and Neydens - Geneve see their averages and 75th percentile buffers peak on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, reflecting the natural flow of transit freight reaching the borders a day or two after dispatch from deeper within Europe.

• Across almost all crossings, Fridays offer the lowest average wait times and the smallest 75th/90th percentile buffers. This points to a decline in volumes as dispatchers try to avoid having drivers caught in weekend bans.

• The 90th percentile data demonstrates why “averages” alone are insufficient for supply chain observation. Even when the average wait at Gottmadingen - Thayngen (DE->CH) looks better on Monday than on Tuesday or Wednesday, the 90th percentile shows that planning for a 120-minute buffer is often required at the week’s start, highlighting a high degree of unpredictability there.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

The military conflict initiated on February 28, 2026, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, has immediately impacted global energy markets. With the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil ocean traffic, facing a de facto blockade, European fuel markets are bracing for an immediate cost crisis. When trading opened on March 2, Brent crude oil prices spiked up by 10-12%, briefly reaching $80 per barrel.

As we noted before, diesel markets exhibit asymmetric behavior: they rise quickly on bad news and fall slowly when markets calm. European fleets now face the threat of a push toward $100 per barrel of crude oil, which could translate to an automatic baseline increase of roughly €0,12 to €0,15 per liter in raw material costs and retail diesel price hikes of €0,20 to €0,30 per liter within weeks.

In the table below, we list anticipated transport cost effects if oil prices increase further in March, reflecting possible monthly diesel floater adjustments on the contracted transport market in April.

It’s unclear how long the blockage persists. Oil market analysts are modeling several potential trajectories for the conflict’s effect on oil markets:

• Quick resolution: Brent at $80–$85. Even in the case of rapid de-escalation, heightened freight and insurance rates will leave a structural “war premium” on oil and diesel through the summer of 2026.

• Mid-term resolution: Brent at $90–$100. If Iran engages in prolonged asymmetric warfare in the Hormuz Strait, flows will be severely bottlenecked. Even if OPEC+ quickly increases production, European pump prices will remain highly volatile, driving regional inflation higher.

• Prolonged blockade: Brent at $125+. A conflict spanning many months with sustained closure of the Strait would trap Middle Eastern exports and shake the oil market, potentially driving crude past $125 per barrel and triggering skyrocketing diesel prices.

Keeping in mind recent historical developments, we can also expect quick reactions from EU governments should diesel prices approach the psychological 2,0 EUR/l retail mark to limit overall inflation, with measures such as fuel rebates, tax or excise cuts similar to those in force in 2022 and, partially, in 2023.

Industry News: Hungary Cancels March Toll Increase

In a rare piece of positive news for European hauliers, the Hungarian Government has officially cancelled the massive toll increase for main roads scheduled for March 1, 2026. Following intense pushback and negotiations with transport industry associations, the previously announced 30% main roads toll hike has been scrapped, according to the decision published in the official Hungarian Gazette on February 26. Tolls will remain at the levels set in January 2026, providing a slight operational relief for trade routes within Hungary.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

The capacity Index, although also based on transactional data, aims to show and explain the overall market sentiment regarding available capacity. Analogously, it can be described as the climate rather than the weather on a specific day. By comparing with Europe, I expect to gain greater transparency into why markets moved and behaved differently in the past.

2022 showed the expected capacity squeezes for both regions, followed by a surge a few months later. Interestingly, in the US, capacity recovery started 4 months earlier than in Europe. 2023 marked the year we reached the highest capacity in both areas, but after Q1 of 2024, a decoupling trend emerged. In the US, available capacity remained high and continued to increase through Q4 of 2025, creating a favorable market environment for shippers and brokers. In Europe, by contrast, capacity shrank steadily, as shown in the trend line. This trend continues into 2026, following a brief period of stabilization in 2025.

From my perspective, carriers in Europe reacted promptly, reducing their fleets as margins vanished and operational costs surged. This challenging environment also manifested in increased carrier bankruptcy figures. As transportation demand in Europe further declined in 2024 and the first half of 2025, fleet reductions are the most likely explanation for the continued capacity shrinking. In comparison to the US a less favorable market environment for shippers and brokers.

The recent capacity drop in the US may reflect several things, besides the often-mentioned increase in transportation demand. I also see very harsh weather conditions, as shown by the chart’s weekly downticks in 2026. However, the supply side likely reacted as well; new heavy truck registrations shrank significantly in 2025, and January 2026 figures continued this trend. Reduced investments in new fleet or fleet modernization could signal a fundamental shift in the persistent capacity-excess trend. Although capacity index figures show a recent decline compared to 2021 or 2022, trucking capacity remains highly available in the US. In my view, it’s currently more a psychological shock than a fundamental one after years of demand exceeding capacity.

What do I expect for the coming weeks? For the US, I foresee capacity easing from the lows already reached in 2026, and the same for Europe, as we are in a seasonal soft period. Based on the fundamental shift in supply in the US, I anticipate a reduced capacity throughout 2026, so far mostly due to carriers’ reactions and business discontinuations rather than significant demand increases, particularly after the recent Supreme Court ruling and tariff uncertainties. In Europe, I expect rising transportation demand to push 2026 capacity down in the mid-term period.

Two continents with a tight economic relationship, but for years, with different transport market sentiment.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Transporeon

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However, recent data signals a structural shift. While the Poland to UK leg remains the dominant, higher-priced direction, the massive pricing gap between the two is shrinking, and the discounts taken for granted for many years are disappearing. The current UK to Poland rate index has increased by approximately 17% compared to the same point in 2025, rising steadily throughout the year. For reference, the overall Transporeon European Contracted Price Index has increased only by 4% over the same period and the headhaul direction (PL to UK) has remained relatively flat year-over-year, showing only minor 2% growth despite short-term volatility around holiday periods.

To understand what lies behind this shift, we must look at the changing trade balances and carrier behaviors that are no longer supporting eastbound freight with subsidies.

The most explosive driver is a correction in the trade balance. Analysis of the latest UK Department for Business and Trade factsheets reveals a growth story that is effectively helping to soak excess capacity. Comparing the four quarters ending Q3 2025 versus the previous year:

• UK Exports to Poland (Goods): Up 26.4%

• UK Imports from Poland (Goods): Up only 2.4%

• Export to Import Ratio (Goods): Up to 68% from 53%

Beyond raw volume, the haulage market is becoming increasingly specialized. We witnessed the emergence of carrier pools that either specialize in cross-channel traffic or avoid the associated customs and travel authorization paperwork entirely. These specialized carriers are increasingly reluctant to travel to the UK without a secured backhaul, or to accept rates into mainland Europe that fall below direct costs - a sharp departure from the days of opportunistic truck movement. This trend is further cemented by the slow but steady consolidation of the carrier market in both countries, driven by the insolvency of smaller, less resilient operators.

Furthermore, the “home advantage” is pulling capacity away. With stronger domestic demand and better yield opportunities now available within Poland (or on neighboring intra-EU lanes), the incentive for Polish carriers to send trucks to the UK is diminishing. The border friction and limited cabotage opportunities in the UK simply look less attractive when profitable work is available closer to home.

In the mid-term, expect the UK to Poland market to remain firm. Momentum is strong, and until Poland-to-UK volumes pick up significantly to inject more capacity into the UK market, eastbound space will remain tighter than usual. It is crucial to recognize that capacity is tightening not because of a lack of trucks, but because those trucks are finding better utilization elsewhere in Europe.

Long-term, supply chains or business models built on the reliance on subsidized freight from the UK to Poland will likely face continued pressure. As the trade imbalance between the two nations continues to reduce, the “backhaul” concept will increasingly fade, replaced by a more balanced and more expensive rate reality.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

In January, demand surprised again with strong values and continued to significantly exceed the levels of the last three years. Chemical surged fueled by cold weather spell, …

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The following map illustrates the changes in heavy truck registrations from 2024 to 2025, revealing a mixed picture by country, while total registrations show a significant decline for Europe.

Many European nations saw registrations drop compared to last year, with Greece and the Netherlands leading the board. Other significant declines of around 10% were recorded for economic heavyweights such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. However, after Q4, more countries moved to the positive side, led by Lithuania, or reduced their declines. Poland, a fleet heavyweight, concluded with a 9,2% increase in new registrations.

This confirms that in some regions, modernization investments in fleets are made. Interestingly, all countries with positive registration figures in 2025 rely almost entirely on diesel engines. In stark contrast, countries with lower overall registrations showed strong battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations.

The following map illustrates the share of BEVs in all heavy truck registrations of the fourth quarter of 2025. The tooltip (mouse-over) also provides the full 2025 share in registrations as the baseline for assessing the Q4 acceleration.

Early leaders with an increasing share of heavy electric trucks amongst all new registrations are Switzerland and Norway, followed by the Netherlands, Denmark and Austria. Remarkably, within a few quarters, 1 out of 8 new registered trucks in Austria runs on battery-electric power. While in Switzerland and Denmark, 1 out of 6 new heavy trucks sold is already a BEV.

The industrial and, consequently, fleet number heavyweights, France and Germany, follow this trend, however, with far more moderate relative electric fleet additions. Nevertheless, Germany is the largest market for electric trucks in numbers, with a ca. 28% share of all new registered BEVs in Europe.

Thoughts and perspective

Looking at these maps, I see a pattern: the further south (except for Greece) or east in Europe, the lower the share of electric trucks in new registrations. International fleet heavyweights like Poland and Lithuania invested in, and thereby committed their business models to diesel-powered trucking. While western and northern Europe started the transition toward electrified trucking. I foresee, within two years or so, a more segmented road transportation landscape, with international long-distance diesel specialists on one side and short to mid-distance national or cross-border zero-emission specialists on the other side of the market. This likely will lead to a decoupling of markets and presumably more volatile prices in international diesel-backed transportation, as network efficiency might decrease with the “loss” of lucrative cabotage journeys for international fleet owners to low-emission specialists. These early BEV adopters are likely to gain market share, improve their network efficiency and overall utilisation during the transition period.

In such a scenario, I expect diesel transport prices to come under downward pressure, while carrier costs will rise due to increased empty kilometers and network imbalances. As a result, over time, the overall fleet in the diesel segment will decrease, leading to significant volatility and uncertainty in prices and capacity due to the decoupling.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

I find this time suitable to look at steady evolution of most prominent examples of “rate-imbalanced” markets, which show steady rate gaps between Import and Export directions, and let us know the basic stories of volume and geography constraints. While imbalances themselves are usually structural and determined by static factors, their evolution over time allows us to see more nuance in how the macroeconomic tale unfolds. Logic suggests should tell that significant political, economic and regulatory shifts seen in recent years should have made a visible change in the existing balances.

In logistics, the price of a truck delivery is rarely just about fuel and driver wages; it is a sensitive barometer for the structural health of an economy. The “rate imbalance” (the pricing power gap between the Export (Outbound) and the Import (Inbound) legs tells a deeper story than flow volume alone. It also reveals how an economy evolves and interacts with its neighbors. When a market is mature, this imbalance stays stable. When it fractures, as seen in the last three years, it should expose the clash between macroeconomic realities and regulatory friction. But was it the truth for several textbook examples of imbalanced markets?

Composite indices of existing outbound/inbound rate imbalances per country

The three charts above are built utilizing contracted rates data from Transporeon Market Insights, harmonized to index level of 100 for 1 January 2023. Increase of the index means that the ratio of inbound rate vs. outbound rate increased, while stable index shows that the ratio remains the same. Dotted lines illustrated 3-year’s trendline.

Fundamentally, transports into Sweden and the UK, and from Poland are significantly more expensive than their opposite direction rate counterparts. While two markets of Poland and United Kingdom trended to the relative equilibrium, Sweden has undergone a more significant upward correction.

Poland and the United Kingdom end of results to keep near the baselines was achieved through opposite circumstances. Poland represents stability through connectivity. As the continent’s logistics hub, Poland faced significant headwinds, including the EU Mobility Package’s home base return rules in 2023, which threatened to flood the market with empty capacity. However, the market absorbed this shock. Strong industrial demand and the war in Ukraine helped Poland to remain a key hub within Central and Eastern Europe, keeping demand for returning trucks afloat. When the return rule was significantly relaxed in late 2024, regulatory threat evaporated. Poland’s line reflected market maturity, showing a market where capacity is not being sent away, but efficiently repositioned.

The United Kingdom represented stability through execution. The post-Brexit reality threatened to leave logistic providers empty, but industry’s resilience and adaptability helped to catch the tipping scales and turn the market to self-sufficiency. High but stable administrative barriers have chased away the volatility with time. The route is now shaped by specialized hauliers and unaccompanied trailer flows that bypass driver complexities. The UK’s flat trendline isn’t a sign of a dynamic hub, but of a fortress market where friction is priced in, where the import-export status quo is maintained.

Sweden stands as the outlier, tracing a distinct “V-shape”. In 2023, the index declined, a movement best understood as a normalization from the overheated post-pandemic peaks. As the Swedish economy entered a recession, with GDP shrinking and household consumption battered by inflation, demand for incoming freight cooled. The drop was not a sign of dysfunction, but of a cooling economy. The trend reversed in early 2024, marking the start of a structural widening of the gap between inbound and outbound rates. This rebound was assisted by the introduction of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) for maritime transport in January 2024, which raised ferry costs, a critical input for Swedish logistics. As private consumption and demand recovered, the index climbed back to parity, signaling a market that has successfully priced in its new regulatory and economic reality.

The most recent data confirms that while the “hubs” and the “islands” can maintain stability through inertia, peripheral markets can be the first to break under regulatory pressure, and the fastest to heal when it is removed.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

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Each data point represents the difference between spot and contracted prices (Index 100) for a specific week. Notably, in week 51 of 2024, spot prices surged 22.7% above contracted levels, repeated by a 22.2% increase in the same week of 2025.

The year 2024 has posed significant shipping challenges. Post-Easter, capacity constraints propelled spot prices beyond 2023 levels. This was primarily due to high carrier rejections, which forced contracted shipments into the spot market. After a short break in quarter 1 of 2025, the trend (green line) resumed its upward trajectory during the public holiday season in quarter 2. The second half of 2025 showed some relief compared to 2024, with lower spot price premiums in October and November.

A more detailed analysis of the market revealed that international markets are driving the current development. While domestic markets are more in line with, or even below, last year’s development, international markets show a significant premium.

Currently, the market is caught in a self-reinforcing cycle. Shippers are shifting volumes away from the spot market to avoid the higher prices there. However, the contracted segment’s prices fail to reflect current operating costs, limiting available capacity in this market segment (as reflected in our capacity metrics, such as contracted load rejections), and this is further exacerbated by moderate increases in transportation demand. Consequently, many shipments were moved to the spot market in December and January due to urgency, further inflating prices.

Some will ask whether this recent development persists and whether the traditional low spot price period in February is canceled. Luckily, I can ease this fear; we will surely experience spot price decreases and capacity to ease in February! On the other hand, I expect the February spot vs. contracted prices view to conclude higher than its 2025 counterparts.

Towards the end of March, as we approach Easter holidays, I expect spot prices to rise again after bottoming out in mid-February to the first week of March. Although the exact levels are uncertain for Easter, current market sentiment points to a significant peak, mirroring at least the 2025 level.

In summary, the spot market became very volatile in 2026. However, domestic markets appear ready to enter into their softer cycle, with international markets expected to follow shortly.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

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