A Fuel Shock with Unequal Geography

When crude oil surged past $105 per barrel in March, European retail diesel prices spiked right alongside it. The response from European governments has been anything but uniform. They have varied widely in their efforts to cushion the blow for carriers and consumers, and this variance maps almost perfectly onto the Nordic freight premiums the market is currently experiencing.

Finland and Denmark put no meaningful relief in place. Sweden has acted, but its May 1 energy tax cut, which brings rates down to the EU minimum, delivers only about 4 cents per litre of effective relief. Norway is the Nordic outlier worth noting. It zeroed its road use tax starting April 1 and extended further cuts into May, delivering the most aggressive relief package in Europe. Its pump price of €1.91 per litre is now below the EU average, a remarkable position for a country that was among the most expensive before the crisis. The consequence for the freight market is equally clear. Contract rates from Norway to Sweden have remained nearly flat in recent months, making it the only Nordic corridor showing no rate pressure.

The Distance Multiplier and Outbound Disparities

Fuel cost is not just a function of price per litre. It is also a function of distance, and Nordic lanes are long. Many key supply flows into Sweden or Finland cover 500 to 1,500 kilometres one way. With fuel accounting for 25% to 30% of total carrier operating costs, carriers realise they must recover almost double their fuel expenses through rate adjustments on the inbound leg.

Since February, inbound spot rates to Nordic destinations have surged sharply, while outbound rates from those same markets have moved far more modestly. The spot over contract price premiums are now reaching 20% to 25% across the board. These are among the highest in Europe and are concentrated entirely in the inbound direction. The Denmark to Germany outbound lane is an example of another angle of the same story. Spot rates are running below contracted rates even into May. Lower outbound demand means carriers heading south are still accepting loads at below contracted rates, sometimes even below their direct costs.

Selective Pricing and Shifting Capacity

Rejection rates confirm that carriers are selectively exercising their pricing power. Inbound rejection rates to Denmark from Germany have risen steadily since February, reaching 27% to 30% in April. Carriers are refusing contracted loads at rates that barely cover their costs in a strained capacity market. Instead, they are pushing volume to the spot market, which is exactly where the premium is most visible.

The practical implication is straightforward. The cost of shipping to the Nordics is rising much faster than the cost of shipping from them, and that gap is only getting wider. Denmark and Finland, the two markets with the highest diesel prices and the least policy relief, are feeling the most acute pressure. Sweden is partially insulated by its May tax cut, but the relief is incredibly modest relative to the initial shock.

Takeaways for Shippers

For shippers with regular inbound Nordic volumes, the goal is not to hunt for cheaper contracts. Instead, it is crucial to lock in existing suppliers through healthy collaboration and improved, transparent scheduling.

While the peak diesel prices may have passed, fuel costs in Nordic countries remain at the top of the European price tables. Furthermore, the structural backhaul imbalance that amplifies the inbound premium remains unchanged. Carriers heading north are pricing in both the elevated fuel costs and the asymmetry of the return trip. Until that asymmetry resolves or until other Nordic governments follow Norway’s generous fuel policy, the extra North premium is here to stay.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

Spot prices are heavily influenced by the market forces of demand and capacity. When demand increases, the market typically experiences reduced capacity and increased inefficiencies. This dynamic is reflected in two key indicators: contracted load rejections and the number of offers per load on the spot market.

For better visualization and alignment of the development of the contracted load rejection index with the spot offers index, rejections are displayed inverted in the graph. Therefore, the decreases in this graph for rejections and spot offers both indicate lower capacity and correlate with the price increases.

This chart highlights the divergence between capacity indicators (rejections and offers) and spot price development, showcasing a typical market reaction during capacity tightness. With both capacity indicators declining significantly and inverted rejections persistently below previous years’ levels, we almost certainly see a capacity squeeze as the reason for the recent surge in spot market rates in France.

One would say: What about the high diesel prices due to the Strait of Hormuz blockage? What’s their contribution to the increase, or what effect do they have on the market? Well, the market is impacted directly by pure diesel increases, but also indirectly in various ways, such as:

• Higher usage of the contracted market due to significantly lower and delayed price increases compared to spot (as indicated by surging rejections)

• Liquidity pressure on the carrier side due to high diesel prices vs. delayed price adjustments, worsening the financial situation of carriers and increasing the risk of bankruptcies

The gold-shaded area in this chart shows the spot price premium compared to the same week in 2025. While a clear distillation of the Strait of Hormuz blockage’s impact on the spot market in France is not possible, we can quantify the direct diesel price (+41% YoY) impact using our total cost of ownership (TCO) model. Week 20 showed a spot price premium of 35,6% compared to 2025, where diesel prices should only account for 10,8 percentage points.

The weeks are also comparable from a public holiday perspective; in fact, 2025 had a slightly less favorable constellation, with May 8th on a Thursday instead of Friday in 2026. Taking this into consideration, the capacity-squeezing environment this year is shaping the market with a premium of around 25%, accelerated by a diesel premium of 10%.

As this premium is mostly capacity-related, a near-term drop of spot prices to 2025 levels or slightly above, even if diesel prices return to 2025 levels, is impossible. France will likely continue to experience very high spot prices through the summer. And this is not a France-only event; we see a similar pattern across many other major European transport markets.

Christian Dolderer
Principal Domain Expert
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

The majority of the changes we see in recent years stem from the implementation of the revised Eurovignette Directive. While the directive mandates CO2-differentiated tolls across the EU to incentivise cleaner vehicles, our Q2 2026 research reveals a heavily fragmented picture. Despite widespread formal adoption, the real-world impact of these environmental incentives is concentrated in one large “island”.

Overall, toll costs represent a substantial share of operational expenses for European transport operators, but the burden is distributed unevenly. Based on the current Q2 2026 Total Cost of Ownership model figures, toll cost shares are the highest in Central European regions. Switzerland leads with tolls accounting for a massive 28% of total transport costs, followed closely by Austria and Hungary at 22%. Germany currently sits at 16%, while France and Italy maintain steady shares of 14% and 13%, respectively. In many other nations, the result is still in single digits or negligible. Baseline is also actively shifting. By Q3 2026, the Netherlands and Romania will introduce new tolling systems, expanding the map of active systems with per km fees. More countries are expected to follow over the next few years.

However, looking at raw toll costs only tells half the story; the true market disruptor is how some of these toll networks penalise diesel-fueled trucks and reward zero-emission alternatives.

The underlying premise of CO2-differentiated tolling is straightforward: pollute less, pay less. For Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and other environmentally friendly engines, toll exemptions and steep discounts are meant to bridge the upfront purchase price gap compared to diesel trucks. Translating this policy into viable financial incentives has resulted in distinct core clusters in Europe, consisting of DACH countries and Denmark, with the Netherlands and the Flanders region of Belgium joining it soon.

As highlighted on the map, “Significant Impact” markets show real-world financial leverage, tipping the TCO scales in favour of a zero-emission truck with a clear financial advantage of 10 cents/km or more.

Germany serves as the prime example. Following the introduction of its aggressive CO2 surcharge in late 2023, toll costs for diesel trucks rose sharply, while fully electric trucks are exempt from the federal highway toll at least until mid-2031.

Austria has similarly integrated CO2 emission classes into its GO-Maut system, granting zero-emission vehicles profound rate reductions compared to more polluting engine types. Switzerland’s heavy vehicle fee also structurally favours emission-free setups, as do Denmark's recent tolling overhauls. The upcoming Q3 2026 distance-based system in the Netherlands echoes these aggressive strategies, establishing Northwestern and Central Europe as the primary zones where BEV deployment yields massive operational savings. And that shows in the latest data on new registrations of electric trucks, which reached double-digit share of all new heavy truck registrations in some of those countries, according to the Q1 2026 data from ACEA.

Outside of this high-impact core, the economic argument for BEVs based on toll savings weakens considerably. The map of toll impact highlights several countries where CO2 differentiation offers only “Minor Impact” or none at all.

For example, Sweden has formally adopted CO2 differentiation to comply with the Eurovignette framework. However, because the country lacks an EUR per km tolling system for heavy trucks on its general road network, relying instead on time-based Eurovignette, the actual financial benefit for operating a zero-emission truck remains negligible.

Similarly, Eastern European markets exhibit muted incentives, albeit for different reasons. In Poland, where road tolls still account for a low share of total freight costs, even a generous discount for a BEV fails to yield enough absolute savings to justify the heavy capital investment required for an electric truck. Hungary presents a unique paradox: despite having a very high overall toll cost share, the structural incentives and CO2 discount scaling for BEVs remain too low to dramatically disrupt the TCO balance between diesel and electric options.

As we progress through 2026, the European freight map is effectively splitting into two tiers. For operators running intensive routes through this “core” region, the transition of parts of their network to BEV operations is not only a “nice to have” sustainability goal – it is a critical commercial advantage, only exacerbated now by diesel price increases.

Meanwhile, in countries with low tolls or mere Eurovignette baseline CO2 compliance like Poland, Sweden, and Hungary, the shift toward zero-emission freight will likely bring the introduction of new policies, direct purchase subsidies, or customer-driven CO2-reduction goals. Fleet managers must increasingly adapt their vehicle deployment and route-planning strategies not just to A/B flows but also to the boundaries of these new toll-impact clusters.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

The following map illustrates changes in heavy truck registrations from Q1 of 2025 to Q1 of 2026. The outcome varies, but the overall increasing trend in Europe is visible.

In the past few quarters, we saw many countries colored blue, with only some yellow outliers occurring. This time, a more positive picture is visible, showing that several more countries have turned to the plus side in the YoY comparison. Even better, that fleet heavyweights (with their usual high absolute numbers of registrations) like Poland, Spain, Germany and Italy are seeing increases. On the contrary Belgium, Finland, Hungary and France continued the downward trend.

This positive development is urgently needed to mitigate and limit the downward trend in available road capacity across Europe. The following chart provides a visualization of recent developments and trends in total registrations, including heavy-duty BEVs, FCEVs and natural gas vehicles.

Registrations are trending upwards, however, totals remain significantly below the peak levels. Following recent developments, like Volvo’s lift in truck market expectation after order intake increases during Q1, we expect the trend to continue in Q2. This is an important and crucial development as the available capacity in the market approaches their all time lows according to our capacity index figures.

Another trend is that BEVs registrations almost doubled compared to Q1 of 2025, contributing to the overall increases, although they still remain niche on a grand scale with a 2,2% share in Europe. Without the growth contributions from electric trucks, the registration would only show a 11,8% increase compared to 12,9%.

Stay tuned for Market Monday on May 25th with an in-depth analysis of other engine type registrations and usage as measured in the Transporeon platform.

Christian Dolderer
Principal Domain Expert
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

As you can see in the included 30-day chart of the Kaub gauge, water levels have seen a steady, concerning decline throughout late April, now hovering around the 120 to 125 cm mark.

The Kaub gauge, located between Koblenz and Mainz in western Germany, is the shallowest point on the Middle Rhine, where hundreds of barges pass every day, transporting more than 50 million tons of cargo each year. This point dictates the maximum draft (and therefore laden cargo weight) for vessels transiting between the deep-sea ports (ARA) and the industrial hinterlands of Germany and France. Long-term average water level at Kaub is 208 cm, and April averages are even higher at 230+ cm.

A water level reading of 120 cm does not mean the river can be crossed by foot (I would strongly advise against it), but it indicates that the operations on the river are already limited by the maximum draft of the barges, as at this level, a standard cargo barge can only move at 60-80% normal capacity by weight. To avoid issues, operators must reduce maximum cargo weight, meaning that now it either takes more vessels to move the same amount of cargo or some of the cargo must be shifted to other modes of transport. River shipping companies usually compensate for this effect by applying low water surcharges, making river transport more expensive and harder to secure.

What makes the current situation so concerning is the calendar. Historically, the Rhine is flush in the spring, filled by Alpine snowmelt and seasonal rains. The traditional “low water season” usually hits in late summer or autumn (August through October). Seeing Kaub levels plunge to 120 cm in late April is rare. We witnessed a similar “spring drought” anomaly just last year in 2025, but before that, you have to look back to the historic European heatwave of 2003, or all the way to the 20th century, to find comparable spring lows. But what is different this year vs 2025 is that the road market went from a relative abundance of capacity to scarcity, as illustrated in our chart below. Last year, the transport industry could absorb some extra freight diverted from the river. However, in our current environment, the outcome might be different.

A single large Rhine barge carries the volume equivalent of 100 to 150 full truckloads of heavy bulk and loose freight like chemicals and steel or intermodal container shipments. If raw materials and import containers begin piling up at BeNeLux terminals, shippers with time-sensitive supply chains will be forced to bypass the river entirely, putting those containers directly on the way south with a truck. Just a few hundred unexpected FTL spot requests may tip the market in its current state, rapidly consuming available trucks. Historical data shows that this quickly drives upward rejection rates for contracted freight and triggers aggressive rate spikes on the spot market.

According to the latest German Federal Institute of Hydrology’s (BfG) 14-day probabilistic forecast, there is no immediate relief in sight. Models show a near-certainty (98%) that levels will drop below 117 cm by early May, worsening the current strain.

And the worst-case scenarios are even more concerning, as the forecast indicates a nearly 50% chance of the Kaub gauge dropping below 100 cm within the next two weeks. At that depth, draft restrictions become severe, and cargo “spills” to the road will be almost unavoidable. The only silver lining is that a complete suspension of barge traffic if the reading drops below the ~77cm level is relatively improbable (<5%).

For road transport professionals operating in these regions, the current Kaub water level is essentially an early warning indicator for truck capacity. While usually early June marks the beginning of the ample capacity and declining spot rates, this year the effect might be reduced or shifted to a later period. We would advise securing critical capacity in the Rhine basin earlier than later and prepare for increased spot market competition if this dry spell continues into May.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

Where does the market stand, and is it heading into a more seller- or buyer-favourable condition? A question many transport and logistics professionals face, particularly given current geopolitical uncertainty.

Some may say that, with high energy costs, the resulting reduction in economic activity, and downwardly revised industrial growth expectations, the European road freight market should indicate a more buyer (shipper)-favourable market situation. Others argue that in the current low-capacity/high-cost pressure environment, the opposite should be true. Both are possible, so it’s the ideal time to zoom in on recent data movements and indicators.

Some months ago, we developed the European Road Freight Balance Index. This index shows the interplay between demand and supply and allows conclusions about how favourable or unfavourable a market is for a shipper or carrier. In essence, it measures the gap between our capacity and demand indices. We derived a corridor of relative market balance between 5 and -5, based on historical values and customer experiences. The closer the index moves towards these boundaries or beyond, the more the market shows typical signs of the respective situation.

Typical seasonal patterns are perfectly visible within the years, and longer periods of sellers’ or buyers’ markets align with overall expectations and other market sources.

Since the rather soft market in 2023, we have seen a persistent upward trend towards a seller’s market. This March’s value is significantly higher than 2025’s, indicating a persistent upward trend. In March, both components showed typical upward movements, with demand above and capacity below last year’s respective levels. In the data, we can’t see (until mid-April) any indications of a softening in demand; also, capacity shows a persistent downward trend across all components (fleet, contracted rejections, and spot market offers).

Based on this analysis and all foundational movements, I expect April and May to cross the +5 threshold, indicating a favourable market to carriers (transport capacity sellers). Recent geopolitical uncertainties and their dampening effects will only marginally affect the April and May interplay between transportation demand & capacity.

Cycling back to the initial question, the data suggests that the market currently offers favourable conditions for sellers. For a fleet owner, a rather good position to offset the recent diesel price highs. For a shipper, reduced need for short-term transport due to improved planning, forecast provision & accuracy, and efficient loading/unloading processes could help to reduce the negative impacts.

Whether the long-term trends of the past few years will persist through the latter half of 2026 remains to be seen, as they are heavily dependent on geopolitical events around the Strait of Hormuz.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

In March, demand rebounded to the January growth trajectory and managed to exceed the levels of last years. All industries, led by Construction Materials, demonstrate a healthy…

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In order to exclude the increases in cost base and account for correspondingly higher baseline estimates, I decided to analyze the spot rate premiums during the Easter window relative to their pre-holiday baselines (average of spot rate index from 6 weeks before till 3 weeks before Easter week). The escalation is stark. In 2023, the market reached a seasonal high at a 10% premium. In 2024, the peak value rose to 12%, followed by 14% in 2025. This year, the 2026 Easter season saw spot premiums reach 19% over the mentioned 4-week baseline. Interestingly, the data suggests that capacity during the week after Easter (Post-Easter week on the chart below) remains strained or even worsens, creating a sticky, high-cost plateau that dissipates slowly over the next few weeks.

What is driving these exponential year-over-year surges? As we have explored in our recent articles, the foundational issue is a continuous erosion of available market capacity. The European road transport sector has been running increasingly lean, as carriers are optimizing their new fleet purchases amid shrinking margins. When the demand even slightly increases, like this year, the “overflow buffer” of available capacity quickly evaporates. When a major holiday hits and a significant portion of the driver workforce takes several days or weeks of leave, the relative drop in available trucks hits much harder against an already constrained market. Carriers are forced to reject contracted volumes they simply cannot cover, pushing a wave of urgent freight onto an increasingly algorithm-driven spot market that is starved for trucks and quickly reacts to capacity changes. In this low-elasticity environment, bidding wars intensify rapidly.

Of course, not the whole massive leap to a 19% premium in 2026 can be explained by capacity constraints alone. This year, rising fuel prices acted as a hidden catalyst. Historically, fluctuations in fuel prices do not instantly translate into spot market volatility, as it is driven by capacity and demand balance far more than by fuel prices. But I still consider that this year’s fuel price shock also played a role in carriers' state of mind and shifted their baselines for spot rate calculations higher. Knowing capacity was scarce, I suspect that some of them preemptively priced in the fuel risks, resulting in over-inflated spot rates for last-minute holiday loads.

The only way for shippers to avoid similar holiday spot price shocks in the future is to shift the focus to early-volume pre-holiday front-loading and securing binding capacity commitments well before the holiday panic sets in.

Breaking News: Germany announces fuel tax cut

In response to soaring energy costs driven by the US-Iran conflict, the German ruling coalition has proposed today a two-month-long reduction in the energy tax on diesel and gasoline by approximately 17 cents per liter, with the loss of tax revenue to be potentially offset by windfall taxes on profits of the businesses in the refining and wholesale fuel trade sectors. Pending a fast-tracked legislative approval process through the German parliament, these measures are anticipated to enter into force within days or weeks and should have a measurable effect on transport costs in Central Europe.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

The capacity index, although based on transactional data, aims to show and explain the overall market sentiment regarding available capacity. Analogously, it rather describes the climate than the weather.

In this analysis, I will focus on recent developments, differences from past periods and future implications. For the full historical discussion and narrative, please revisit the previous article:

The US trucking market faces the highest available capacity reduction in years, as confirmed by the current index value of week 14, which marks a 3-year low. The trend line exhibits a downward tendency, given last years’ high readings, a stabilization or even rather unexpected significant rebounds won’t change one evident fact: The trucking capacity in the US structurally changed after years of capacity exceeding demand. All three components of the capacity index confirm this trend: reductions in offers on the spot market, increases in tender-rejection rates, and sharp declines in new vehicle registrations in the US manifest the shift that began at the end of 2025.

The million-dollar question is, at what level will it stabilize? Will the Strait of Hormuz closure dampen transportation demand and mitigate further potential capacity reductions? In this environment, it is not easy to answer or predict; however, the effect on the market is clear for a potential capacity index value around 100. On one hand, transport prices will adjust, and spot prices will lead. On the other hand, an index value of 100 will still ensure market functionality and all goods will be moved, but at different price levels. Shippers with efficient processes to limit carriers’ downtimes will likely benefit from lower cost increases.

In Europe, in contrast, we left the typical soft period and are approaching the busy period, with numerous public holidays and usual seasonal capacity constraints. However, the trend line shows a downward slope, and it has accelerated recently. Year-on-year, accounting for the Easter-based shift in weeks, we are currently 7 index points down. So far, there is no measurable and demand-dampening effect on the capacity index due to the Middle East turmoil.

Recent news, such as the bankruptcy and liquidation of the French branch of Ziegler Group and the associated closure of numerous sites, highlights the challenging financial situation carriers are still in. The unfortunate ripple effects of this bankruptcy could eliminate more trucking capacity than Ziegler in France accounted for.

The financial pressure based on high diesel prices and the corresponding liquidity gap on the carrier side will prevent them from making fleet investments, which is also true for the US. My earlier expressed hopes in a capacity-mitigating increasing fleet investment literally sank in the Strait of Hormuz.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)

Europe’s reliance on oil imports and limited resources to mitigate the impact has pushed the weighted average diesel fuel price up to an astonishing EU average of €2.07 per liter last week, and this week’s threshold will likely be even higher. With fuel accounting for 25-30% of transport costs basis, commercial carriers and logistics providers faced extreme margin compression, forcing them to engage in immediate and aggressive upward rate correction negotiations with shippers. This is especially true in the contracted freight market, where normally fuel floaters change in a month or even in a quarter after the actual changes in fuel prices.

To prevent a deterioration of critical supply chains and consumer price inflation, European governments have continued drafting and implementing emergency mitigation measures over the past two weeks. However, constrained by national budget realities, the responses have been highly fractured, creating a patchwork of regulations across the European markets.

Staying away from the expensive tax subsidies, Germany and Austria chose a path of stricter regulations aimed at the mechanics of retail and wholesale fuel pricing instead of direct fiscal measures. The Austrian government implemented a severe tightening of its fuel price rules on March 16. Petrol stations are now legally restricted to increasing prices exclusively on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays at exactly 12:00 noon. Germany followed the example on March 27, when the government successfully passed a Fuel Policy Package through the Bundesrat. Entering into force just ahead of the Easter holidays, the legislation structurally restricts petrol stations to a single daily price increase at noon and introduces complex anti-cartel measures aimed at increasing competition on local wholesale and retail fuel markets.

Unlike regulatory solutions above, Poland has deployed heavy fiscal intervention. While a massive fuel VAT reduction (23% to 8%) and retail price caps go live tomorrow, March 31, this headline relief is largely an illusion for commercial carriers. The only operational savings for them come from the excise duty cuts that took effect today, March 30, yielding a slight net reduction of just 28 groszy (~6.5 ct.) per liter for hauliers. To fund these measures, Poland is concurrently implementing a windfall tax on energy corporations.

Across the rest of the continent, the policy patchwork introduced over the last two weeks presents operational complexities for cross-border logistics:

Similarly to Poland, Spain announced an expansive crisis package on March 24, reducing its fuel VAT from 21% to 10% (effective March 22) alongside an extraordinary and temporary cashback subsidy of 20 cents per liter for diesel used in commercial transport activities until 30^th of June.

Greece’s government decided to directly subsidize diesel for transport and agricultural sectors at the distribution level by €0.16 per liter before VAT in April and May.

Taking a middle-ground approach, Sweden announced a 4.7-billion-SEK relief package on March 23 to reduce petrol and diesel taxes to the EU minimum, allowing for 30-40 eurocent discounts at the pump. However, unlike the immediate interventions seen in Southern and Eastern Europe, this relief will not enter into force until May 1.

France, UK, Italy and Bulgaria have rejected untargeted consumer subsidies and direct fiscal measures. France announced measures on March 23 focused on easing payroll levies and extending tax deadlines specifically for the transport sector. The UK (March 24) prioritized aggressive anti-profiteering frameworks. Italy enacted emergency decrees on March 19, deliberately carving out €100 million in tax credit mechanisms exclusively for transport and logistics enterprises.

Meanwhile, Romania adopted a severe emergency ordinance on March 26 (in force from April 1) that legally caps commercial markups and heavily restricts the export of diesel with massive financial penalties, without any direct fiscal measures.

So, while these rapid national interventions are designed to keep the economy and services providers moving, their variance creates severe secondary friction for the road freight market, when at the pump prices in transit countries might be significantly lower than the wholesale prices at the home base country, sparkling “fuel tourism” and introducing potential for sub-optimal routing distance choices, indirectly harming network efficiency, while the need to apply for targeted government rebate schemes increases the administrative load and introduces an additional degree of risk from processing errors. Overall, the absence of a uniform approach in these measures decreases market transparency and complicates the fair spread of fuel price risks between shippers and carriers.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

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The following chart illustrates the dynamics between spot and contract prices across all monitored markets, covering data from more than 100 country-to-country relationships in Europe.

Each data point represents the difference between spot and contracted prices (Index 100) for a specific week. Seasonality plays a role here: in week 51 of 2024, spot prices surged 22.7% above contracted levels, repeated by a 22.2% increase in the same week of 2025

2024 faced significant shipping challenges, with capacity constraints after Easter pushing spot prices above 2023 levels amid high carrier rejections, prompting a shift of contracted shipments to the spot market. After a brief pause in early 2025, prices resumed rising during the second quarter’s holiday season, though there was some relief in late 2025. International markets are driving these trends, with higher premiums than in domestic markets.

Q1 of 2026 confirmed this persistent upward trend, as spot prices, on average across Europe, remained above contracted prices and their 2025 counterparts.

The market will soon experience more pronounced exposure to the self-reinforcing price-increase cycle, driven by seasonal demand and sudden cost-increase factors (high energy prices). This self-reinforcing cycle is best described as follows: Shippers are shifting volumes away from the spot market to avoid the higher prices there. However, the contracted segment’s prices fail to reflect current operating costs, limiting available capacity in this market segment (as reflected in our capacity metrics, such as contracted load rejections), and this is further exacerbated by moderate increases in transportation demand. Consequently, many shipments will be moved to the spot market in April and May due to urgency, further inflating prices.

For two weeks prior to Easter, we expect the spot premium to climb towards 14%. Quick increases in contracted rates due to fuel adjustments, as seen last week, will mitigate spot price premiums. However, the seasonal uptick in demand pressure remains intact and will likely push the spot premiums to last year’s levels. A short-term dampening of transportation demand in response to the negative effects of the Middle East conflict is unlikely.

In summary, the coming weeks will be influenced by tightening capacity and surging energy costs, pushing spot rate premiums to last year’s levels or even beyond.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation

The effects of this macroeconomic shock have hit European pumps with unprecedented velocity, heavily assisted by multiplying factors of national excise and tax structures. Below is a breakdown of the relative and absolute commercial diesel price changes across key European markets between Weeks 9 and 11:

The reason for large variance in diesel price developments across the major European countries partially lies in differences in local policies.

Germany, France, Denmark, and Sweden have rejected immediate fuel-price shields or direct tank rebates, prioritizing budget conservation and instead relying on antitrust authorities to monitor retail price hikes. The Spanish, Italian, and Austrian governments have expressed a more cautious approach and are considering tax-cut measures, but have implemented none yet.

Other countries are using a combination of direct regulation of prices or profit margins for the fuel market (Belgium, Slovenia, Croatia) or indirect influence, like Poland and Hungary in their approach of mitigating retail cost increases via state-controlled market entities.

The differences in policies sparked intense cross-border “fuel tourism”, particularly from German commercial operators to Poland seeking to capture arbitrage savings of up to €0.50-0.60 per liter, which is draining Western Poland’s supply hubs.

The Romanian government extended a specific, targeted support scheme that provides a direct financial grant of RON 0.85 per liter of diesel exclusively for registered road transport and distribution operators.

Variances in measurement lead us to a more fragmented and dynamic European market, where fuel prices, rules, and policies change overnight. To understand the true cost effects, we mapped these macro price surges directly onto operational logistics. Leveraging the Transporeon TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) Model, we analyzed how the recent spikes alter the fundamental economics for three specific European lanes:

• Poland to Germany (Poznan to Essen): On this roughly 765 km route, the extreme fuel price surges in Germany and Poland have pushed the calculated fuel share of total costs from 24.6% up to 28.4% and drove a 5.3% increase in total operating costs. The baseline rate calculation now requires an absolute increase of ca. €62 per trip to compensate for the increase in fuel costs.

• Spain to Netherlands (Zaragoza to Rotterdam): Covering over 1,515 km, the calculated fuel’s share of operating costs on this lane has jumped from 25.3% to 28.1%, translating to a 3.9% rise in total costs. Consequently, the February benchmark rate needs a ~€72 upward total correction.

• Italy to United Kingdom (Brescia to Manchester): Despite being the longest lane in our sample at nearly 1,680 km, the milder localized fuel surges resulted in a smaller relative shift: calculated fuel share increased from 23.4% to 25.1%, causing only a 2.3% total cost bump. Applied to a higher base rate, this dictates an ~€84 absolute rate increase.

These figures highlight how rapidly geopolitical shocks can change lane-level costs. As fuel policies and pump prices literally change overnight, we are utilizing our TCO algorithms across shipper networks to cut through the noise. In such a dynamic market, having an objective, data-driven baseline is the only way to determine which rate adjustments are genuinely fair for all parties involved, instead of applying one-size-fits-all solutions.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

In February, demand gently disappointed with a rather low value compared to 2023 and 2024, but managed to exceed the levels of 2025. Chemical, Automotive, Metal & Steel and …

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However, planning and moving goods across Swiss road borders requires some degree of understanding of network dynamics. Following a period of relative relief in 2024, recent data indicates that border crossing delays are rebounding to high levels again. Using exclusive data from Transporeon’s Real-Time Visibility products, we analyzed millions of tracking events to uncover exactly what shippers and carriers are experiencing.

While Switzerland has numerous large and small border crossings, commercial freight traffic is heavily concentrated at a few. For this analysis, we isolated the five busiest commercial road gateways based on historical heavy goods vehicle volumes. These crossings handle the lion’s share of transit and import/export goods movement:

1. Saint-Louis - Basel (France/CH): The heavy commercial node for Western inbound traffic.

2. Weil am Rhein - Basel (Germany/CH): The undisputed primary artery for the North-South corridor coming from Germany.

3. Gottmadingen - Thayngen (Germany/CH): Another vital gateway to Germany.

4. Maslianico - Chiasso (Italy/CH): The primary southern anchor feeding the Gotthard route.

5. Neydens - Geneve (France/CH): The high-volume artery for southwestern Switzerland and France.

A note on methodology: Calculating border delays in logistics can be misleading if simple 24-hour averages are used, as empty nighttime borders and closed truck crossings might mathematically pull down the overall figures. To provide a true reflection of driver experience, the data from Transporeon Real-Time Visibility was strictly filtered to include only active business hours (06:00 to 20:00) from Monday through Friday. Nighttime and weekend crossings were excluded. By isolating these specific parameters and focusing on the five highest-volume commercial gateways, we gain a much clearer observational lens into the structural realities of the Swiss freight network.

The immediate observation from the Real-Time Visibility data is the severe directional imbalance. Simply put, traffic flowing into Switzerland waits significantly longer than traffic flowing out.

This discrepancy is rooted in the structural differences between import and export procedures. Inbound freight faces rigorous import checks, temporary payment of customs duties and VAT, and the physical processing of transport declarations if they were not submitted in advance via digitized systems. Conversely, exiting the country is a much lower-friction process. In 2025, inbound wait times average 42 minutes, while outbound freight wait times average 25 minutes.

When analyzing average waiting times over a three-year horizon (2023–2025, see chart below), a V-shaped trend emerges. In early 2024, the network experienced a notable easing of congestion. Average waiting times to enter Switzerland dropped significantly across all border points, an improvement likely driven by Switzerland’s abolition of industrial import tariffs on January 1, 2024, and the scaled rollout of digitized customs systems, which enabled smoother administrative clearances.

However, this administrative relief was soon outpaced by the return of physical volumes. As we moved deeper into 2025, average waiting times were steadily climbing back to the higher levels seen in 2023. Today, the network average has crept back up to roughly 34 minutes, and peak season autumn figures are pushing beyond that.

For a more tactical and tactile understanding of how these bottlenecks behave, it is essential to know how delays fluctuate throughout the standard working week.

Looking at the weekday percentiles, we find the weekly transport trends:

• Inbound traffic is more congested on Basel crossings on Mondays. At the Saint-Louis – Basel border point 10% of trucks are waiting for two hours or more on Monday. This is a classic symptom of the weekend heavy vehicle driving ban clearing out, creating a massive Monday morning freight backlog waiting to enter the country.

• While Mondays are highly volatile for Basel, other borders see their congestion peak mid-week. Gottmadingen - Thayngen and Neydens - Geneve see their averages and 75th percentile buffers peak on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, reflecting the natural flow of transit freight reaching the borders a day or two after dispatch from deeper within Europe.

• Across almost all crossings, Fridays offer the lowest average wait times and the smallest 75th/90th percentile buffers. This points to a decline in volumes as dispatchers try to avoid having drivers caught in weekend bans.

• The 90th percentile data demonstrates why “averages” alone are insufficient for supply chain observation. Even when the average wait at Gottmadingen - Thayngen (DE->CH) looks better on Monday than on Tuesday or Wednesday, the 90th percentile shows that planning for a 120-minute buffer is often required at the week’s start, highlighting a high degree of unpredictability there.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

The military conflict initiated on February 28, 2026, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, has immediately impacted global energy markets. With the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil ocean traffic, facing a de facto blockade, European fuel markets are bracing for an immediate cost crisis. When trading opened on March 2, Brent crude oil prices spiked up by 10-12%, briefly reaching $80 per barrel.

As we noted before, diesel markets exhibit asymmetric behavior: they rise quickly on bad news and fall slowly when markets calm. European fleets now face the threat of a push toward $100 per barrel of crude oil, which could translate to an automatic baseline increase of roughly €0,12 to €0,15 per liter in raw material costs and retail diesel price hikes of €0,20 to €0,30 per liter within weeks.

In the table below, we list anticipated transport cost effects if oil prices increase further in March, reflecting possible monthly diesel floater adjustments on the contracted transport market in April.

It’s unclear how long the blockage persists. Oil market analysts are modeling several potential trajectories for the conflict’s effect on oil markets:

• Quick resolution: Brent at $80–$85. Even in the case of rapid de-escalation, heightened freight and insurance rates will leave a structural “war premium” on oil and diesel through the summer of 2026.

• Mid-term resolution: Brent at $90–$100. If Iran engages in prolonged asymmetric warfare in the Hormuz Strait, flows will be severely bottlenecked. Even if OPEC+ quickly increases production, European pump prices will remain highly volatile, driving regional inflation higher.

• Prolonged blockade: Brent at $125+. A conflict spanning many months with sustained closure of the Strait would trap Middle Eastern exports and shake the oil market, potentially driving crude past $125 per barrel and triggering skyrocketing diesel prices.

Keeping in mind recent historical developments, we can also expect quick reactions from EU governments should diesel prices approach the psychological 2,0 EUR/l retail mark to limit overall inflation, with measures such as fuel rebates, tax or excise cuts similar to those in force in 2022 and, partially, in 2023.

Industry News: Hungary Cancels March Toll Increase

In a rare piece of positive news for European hauliers, the Hungarian Government has officially cancelled the massive toll increase for main roads scheduled for March 1, 2026. Following intense pushback and negotiations with transport industry associations, the previously announced 30% main roads toll hike has been scrapped, according to the decision published in the official Hungarian Gazette on February 26. Tolls will remain at the levels set in January 2026, providing a slight operational relief for trade routes within Hungary.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant

The capacity Index, although also based on transactional data, aims to show and explain the overall market sentiment regarding available capacity. Analogously, it can be described as the climate rather than the weather on a specific day. By comparing with Europe, I expect to gain greater transparency into why markets moved and behaved differently in the past.

2022 showed the expected capacity squeezes for both regions, followed by a surge a few months later. Interestingly, in the US, capacity recovery started 4 months earlier than in Europe. 2023 marked the year we reached the highest capacity in both areas, but after Q1 of 2024, a decoupling trend emerged. In the US, available capacity remained high and continued to increase through Q4 of 2025, creating a favorable market environment for shippers and brokers. In Europe, by contrast, capacity shrank steadily, as shown in the trend line. This trend continues into 2026, following a brief period of stabilization in 2025.

From my perspective, carriers in Europe reacted promptly, reducing their fleets as margins vanished and operational costs surged. This challenging environment also manifested in increased carrier bankruptcy figures. As transportation demand in Europe further declined in 2024 and the first half of 2025, fleet reductions are the most likely explanation for the continued capacity shrinking. In comparison to the US a less favorable market environment for shippers and brokers.

The recent capacity drop in the US may reflect several things, besides the often-mentioned increase in transportation demand. I also see very harsh weather conditions, as shown by the chart’s weekly downticks in 2026. However, the supply side likely reacted as well; new heavy truck registrations shrank significantly in 2025, and January 2026 figures continued this trend. Reduced investments in new fleet or fleet modernization could signal a fundamental shift in the persistent capacity-excess trend. Although capacity index figures show a recent decline compared to 2021 or 2022, trucking capacity remains highly available in the US. In my view, it’s currently more a psychological shock than a fundamental one after years of demand exceeding capacity.

What do I expect for the coming weeks? For the US, I foresee capacity easing from the lows already reached in 2026, and the same for Europe, as we are in a seasonal soft period. Based on the fundamental shift in supply in the US, I anticipate a reduced capacity throughout 2026, so far mostly due to carriers’ reactions and business discontinuations rather than significant demand increases, particularly after the recent Supreme Court ruling and tariff uncertainties. In Europe, I expect rising transportation demand to push 2026 capacity down in the mid-term period.

Two continents with a tight economic relationship, but for years, with different transport market sentiment.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Transporeon

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However, recent data signals a structural shift. While the Poland to UK leg remains the dominant, higher-priced direction, the massive pricing gap between the two is shrinking, and the discounts taken for granted for many years are disappearing. The current UK to Poland rate index has increased by approximately 17% compared to the same point in 2025, rising steadily throughout the year. For reference, the overall Transporeon European Contracted Price Index has increased only by 4% over the same period and the headhaul direction (PL to UK) has remained relatively flat year-over-year, showing only minor 2% growth despite short-term volatility around holiday periods.

To understand what lies behind this shift, we must look at the changing trade balances and carrier behaviors that are no longer supporting eastbound freight with subsidies.

The most explosive driver is a correction in the trade balance. Analysis of the latest UK Department for Business and Trade factsheets reveals a growth story that is effectively helping to soak excess capacity. Comparing the four quarters ending Q3 2025 versus the previous year:

• UK Exports to Poland (Goods): Up 26.4%

• UK Imports from Poland (Goods): Up only 2.4%

• Export to Import Ratio (Goods): Up to 68% from 53%

Beyond raw volume, the haulage market is becoming increasingly specialized. We witnessed the emergence of carrier pools that either specialize in cross-channel traffic or avoid the associated customs and travel authorization paperwork entirely. These specialized carriers are increasingly reluctant to travel to the UK without a secured backhaul, or to accept rates into mainland Europe that fall below direct costs - a sharp departure from the days of opportunistic truck movement. This trend is further cemented by the slow but steady consolidation of the carrier market in both countries, driven by the insolvency of smaller, less resilient operators.

Furthermore, the “home advantage” is pulling capacity away. With stronger domestic demand and better yield opportunities now available within Poland (or on neighboring intra-EU lanes), the incentive for Polish carriers to send trucks to the UK is diminishing. The border friction and limited cabotage opportunities in the UK simply look less attractive when profitable work is available closer to home.

In the mid-term, expect the UK to Poland market to remain firm. Momentum is strong, and until Poland-to-UK volumes pick up significantly to inject more capacity into the UK market, eastbound space will remain tighter than usual. It is crucial to recognize that capacity is tightening not because of a lack of trucks, but because those trucks are finding better utilization elsewhere in Europe.

Long-term, supply chains or business models built on the reliance on subsidized freight from the UK to Poland will likely face continued pressure. As the trade imbalance between the two nations continues to reduce, the “backhaul” concept will increasingly fade, replaced by a more balanced and more expensive rate reality.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant