A Data-Driven Look at Europe's Post-Holiday Spot Market Dynamics

Market Monday - Week 38 - Spot market facts, figures, usual patterns and why our data paints a different picture

Today, we examine the current spot market sentiment and forecast trends for the coming weeks following the summer break across Europe. This builds on customers' requests in the past weeks, asking for clarifications and explanations on why we and our figures paint a different picture of the current spot market sentiment than other reports.

The accompanying chart illustrates the dynamics of spot price levels based on a weighted index across 70 European country combinations. Hundreds or thousands of lanes, with prices directly locked and executed on our platform, form the basis for each country combination. With its methodology, this index perfectly reflects the European spot market movements without delay.

The spot market is volatile by nature, but typical cycles are observed even during boom or recession periods or external effects like the COVID-19 pandemic. Q1 usually shows the lowest spot prices, followed by steep increases in Q2, reflecting the operational burdens and hassle around public holidays and some key industry sectors awakening from their winter sleep.

The price developments correlate perfectly with the available capacity and, most importantly, with our customers' market perceptions.

The described seasonality is visible in the quarterly averages. 2025, so far, without exception and a steep rise in spot prices for quarters 2 and 3 after the soft cycle in February and March. August, in contrast, demonstrated an expected relief in spot rates, swiftly followed by a rebound toward September.

In September, trucks and drivers typically cycle back into their usual loops across Europe after their well-deserved summer break, leaving some lanes and markets unbalanced with respect to demand and supply during the first weeks after the summer break.

I expect spot rates to ease by late September or early October. Buyers, dispatchers, and planners should enjoy several weeks of smoother market conditions and more efficient operations until the year-end rally begins with its usual operational hurdles and challenges. The recently observed increases in transportation demand may even intensify these operational challenges compared to a typical year.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)