Climbing the Peak: Why the 2025 Spot Market Finally Found Relief
Market Monday - Week 51 - Spot market facts, figures
Before we delve into the last analysis and Market Monday article of 2025, let me briefly recap our Freight Perspectives journey.
When we started with Freight Perspectives, we had a clear mission: to help freight procurement professionals master an increasingly complex market environment. In a world where data is abundant but clarity is scarce, we set out to create a space where industry expertise meets practical insights.
Our mission has always been twofold: first, to serve as a trusted guide in understanding the dynamics of the European transport market, and second, to build a community where knowledge sharing becomes the foundation for better decision-making. We believe that by sharing our understanding - our perspective - of market developments, we can help others overcome the challenges and find opportunities in freight procurement more effectively.
Reflecting on the last two years, I’m grateful for the trust you have shown us by subscribing to our content, reaching out, and discussing market developments both publicly and privately. Together, we brought more understanding, clarity and structure to the often chaotic logistics world. Thank you!
In some of our recent articles, we mentioned the development of the spot prices, our expectations, and the likelihood of reaching new peaks in the weeks leading up to the end of the year. Today, we are precisely in this phase, and the following graph summarizes the spot price developments of the last few years and weeks.
2025 is expected to conclude 5% above the average spot prices in 2024, maintaining the price increase trajectory initiated in the first half of 2024. Average spot prices in 2025 surpassed the peak observed in 2022. Last week, the spot market almost mirrored the 2024 levels, but did not significantly exceed them. This is good news for the industry as it indicates and confirms some relief from the upward pressure regime of the last 18 months and extreme price swings.
You might ask, how is this relief possible? In my view, the market could have adapted to the new sentiment that has been in place since the summer of 2024. The upward pressure in spot prices improved operations, increased utilization, and led to efficiency gains within shippers’ and carrier networks.
When compared to contracted prices, spot prices stopped outperforming the movements in contracted prices. Throughout most weeks of 2025, the spot price premium trend line continued to increase, but this trend stopped in October and has since marginally decreased. This spot & contracted price interplay strengthens the theory of efficiency gains in planning and utilisation, as more transport requests could be served in the contracted segment.
On behalf of the Freight Perspectives Team, I would like to thank you again for taking the time to read our analyses. We wish you all the best for 2026 and look forward to returning with our next Market Monday on January 12.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)
