Contracted Load Rejections Signal Tougher Times Ahead for International Logistics

Market Monday - Week 48 - Stormy (road capacity) waters ahead

MARKET ALERT: Today likely marks the date from which onwards, contracted transport assignments for international transportation will get more complicated. Recent figures reveal that during Week 47, three out of four main European corridors in international transportation faced higher rejections than in Week 46. Only international transport assignments within Western Europe continued to ease, while those between the West and East, East and West, and within Eastern Europe showed higher rejection rates.

Contracted load rejections are a crucial KPI in many of our analyses, reflecting available transport capacity. A surge in rejections signals reduced capacity, which can lead to increased transportation costs and inefficiencies. By closely monitoring rejections, market players can anticipate shifts and refine their logistics strategies.

The following chart shows West-to-East and West-to-West corridors (dotted lines), which are part of the international contracted rejection load index (bold grey line). The index values above 100 indicate a worsening compared to 2023, which we set as the reference baseline for this analysis. It further includes our expectation for the remainder of 2025.

Compared to the 2024 values, the values from the last week are slightly below, indicating no further decrease in capacity for international transportation.

Looking ahead, we project a strong and steady rebound to levels comparable to those in December 2024, starting from the current week. Initial fears of further capacity worsening, based on September 2025 values exceeding their 2024 counterparts, appear to be unsubstantiated given current November levels. However, in this highly volatile market environment, surprises need to be anticipated.

Next week, we will examine the spot prices, as we anticipate they will follow the contracted load rejections. In a similar analysis, we identified a typical delay of one to two weeks for spot prices to react after rejections indicate a market change.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)