Economic Growth Ahead?
Market Monday - Week 34 - Signs of recovery and growth from 3 KPIs in July
Last week, we highlighted the automotive sector's promise of growth after years of recession. Today's topic is more holistic but similarly impactful. In July, the Transporeon platform data showed a significant increase in transportation demand. Compared to July 2024, the overall demand increased by 5,9%, beating the 2023 level as well. An increase in transportation demand is often a leading indicator of economic recovery, directly reflecting a rise in goods manufacturing.
If these signs of economic recovery hold, other leading market indicators, such as the German toll mileage indicator, should show a similar trend or development for this month. The Federal Office for Logistics and Mobility (BALM) developed this index. It records the mileage of large trucks (with at least four axles) on German federal motorways. This makes it an excellent indicator to measure transport performance in the center of Europe, having figures for both the largest economy and an important transit country in the EU.
For more clarity and visual simplification, I've combined 2021 and 2022 as well as 2023 and 2024. The dotted lines represent the yearly values, which vary only marginally. This analysis reveals a fascinating movement as the uptick in July 2025 is statistically significant. In the last 4 years, we monitored no comparable June-to-July movement. This could indicate that we witnessed either a shift in the economic development or a one-time, external factor-driven exception. Tariff-induced frontloading effects could be an exception; however, I anticipate a combination of overall growth and, with less impact, the tariff effect as the most likely explanation.
Another metric that should show a reaction during a potential transition to a growing market environment at stable and limited capacity levels is drivers' shortened rest periods throughout the month.
This KPI is based on Transporeon real-time visibility data, allowing us to review operational pressure in a market environment. Values above 100 indicate a market situation requiring more shortened rest periods than the average situation in 2021. Typically, the hectic months within a year show the highest values, representing a seasonality that can be seen in this chart.
This data shows that in 2023, a year with a higher capacity supply, the need for shortened rest periods was low compared to other years. In 2024 and 2025, we see a different picture, clearly departing from the levels of 2023 and aligning more closely with 2022. Another aspect with a direct impact on this KPI is the assumed reduction in fleet, and this fact also explains, besides a loss in efficiency, why shortened rest periods rose in 2024 despite transportation demand reductions. If fewer trucks are available, the need for shortened rest periods, particularly during peak times, increases again.
Coming back to the significant uptick in July 2025 and the departure from the 2024 trajectory, this supports my perception of an extraordinary July with an eye towards further future transportation demand increases.
This data also proves that from an operational perspective, carriers currently utilize their available assets (fleet and drivers) close to their maximum, leaving only a theoretical possibility for a relatively relaxed capacity supply and spot price levels, particularly if the economy starts to grow or during the year-end peak season.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)