European Road Freight: Data Signals a Decisive Shift in Power Toward a Seller’s Market
Market Monday - Week 17 – European transport demand and capacity interplay
In some of our recent Market Mondays, we shared insights into the spot market and the interplay with capacity. Today, I will focus on the bigger picture and provide a helicopter view of the current market sentiment.
Where does the market stand, and is it heading into a more seller- or buyer-favourable condition? A question many transport and logistics professionals face, particularly given current geopolitical uncertainty.
Some may say that, with high energy costs, the resulting reduction in economic activity, and downwardly revised industrial growth expectations, the European road freight market should indicate a more buyer (shipper)-favourable market situation. Others argue that in the current low-capacity/high-cost pressure environment, the opposite should be true. Both are possible, so it’s the ideal time to zoom in on recent data movements and indicators.
Some months ago, we developed the European Road Freight Balance Index. This index shows the interplay between demand and supply and allows conclusions about how favourable or unfavourable a market is for a shipper or carrier. In essence, it measures the gap between our capacity and demand indices. We derived a corridor of relative market balance between 5 and -5, based on historical values and customer experiences. The closer the index moves towards these boundaries or beyond, the more the market shows typical signs of the respective situation.
Typical seasonal patterns are perfectly visible within the years, and longer periods of sellers’ or buyers’ markets align with overall expectations and other market sources.
Since the rather soft market in 2023, we have seen a persistent upward trend towards a seller’s market. This March’s value is significantly higher than 2025’s, indicating a persistent upward trend. In March, both components showed typical upward movements, with demand above and capacity below last year’s respective levels. In the data, we can’t see (until mid-April) any indications of a softening in demand; also, capacity shows a persistent downward trend across all components (fleet, contracted rejections, and spot market offers).
Based on this analysis and all foundational movements, I expect April and May to cross the +5 threshold, indicating a favourable market to carriers (transport capacity sellers). Recent geopolitical uncertainties and their dampening effects will only marginally affect the April and May interplay between transportation demand & capacity.
Cycling back to the initial question, the data suggests that the market currently offers favourable conditions for sellers. For a fleet owner, a rather good position to offset the recent diesel price highs. For a shipper, reduced need for short-term transport due to improved planning, forecast provision & accuracy, and efficient loading/unloading processes could help to reduce the negative impacts.
Whether the long-term trends of the past few years will persist through the latter half of 2026 remains to be seen, as they are heavily dependent on geopolitical events around the Strait of Hormuz.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)