European Road Transport Contracted Rate Surge Incoming in August 2026

Market Monday - Week 32 - Fuel costs back to high levels across Europe; France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom developments in focus.

European diesel prices have risen sharply in July. Germany has seen the biggest increase, from €1.73 per liter on 22 June to €2.19 on 27 July. France and Spain have also moved well above recent lows, while the increase in Great Britain has been smaller. The full impact of July’s diesel increases is not yet reflected in contracted rates, but it will become clearer in August.

The lessons from the spring increase

This is Europe’s second major diesel-price increase of 2026. Following the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz in March, diesel rose up to 40% across Europe. As said already in our previous articles, fuel accounts for around 25-30% of full-truckload operating costs.

Contracted prices usually follow increases several weeks later. German diesel peaked on 6 April, but the domestic contracted rate continued rising until 4 May. In France, diesel peaked one week later, and contracted rates reached their high in mid-May. In both markets, the delay was roughly four to five weeks.

Rates also took time to follow diesel back down. Fuel prices declined through May and June, while contracted rates stayed high for several more weeks. Germany’s domestic index fell from 135.2 in early May to €132 by 6 July. The low rates seen in early July, therefore, reflected the earlier decline in diesel, rather than conditions at the pump that month.

This is fully consistent with the market-standard fuel-floater arrangements described in our Week 14 article. Diesel prices can change overnight, but contracted rates usually adjust only with the next billing cycle.

Germany faces a double hit

Since their June or early-July lows, diesel prices have risen by approximately 27% in Germany, 16% in France and 15% in Spain. Great Britain has recorded a smaller increase of around 5%.

Germany has been hit by two developments at once. The renewed oil market risk linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis has affected Europe as a whole. At the same time, Germany’s temporary fuel-tax reduction of around 17 cents per liter expired on 30 June. The loss of that support helps explain why Germany has seen the strongest increase.

The first effect on contracted rates is already becoming visible. German domestic rates began to increase on 6 July and rose in each of the next two weeks. French contracted rates also bottomed that week and have since increased twice. The changes remain small, but the timing matches the pattern seen in spring.

Spain is moving differently. Diesel bottomed at the end of June, yet domestic contracted rates were still falling on 20 July. The adjustment might be smoother due to seasonal demand shifts and government support efforts, which are hidden from the plain diesel price overview, limiting carriers’ need to raise prices.

Great Britain presents another case. Diesel has increased only moderately, while domestic contract rates have risen since late June. The capacity/demand balance appears to explain more of the British rate increase than fuel.

What to expect in August

Germany and France should see clearer upward pressure on contracted prices during August. Germany is likely to lead because it experienced the largest increase in diesel prices, and the return of the tax discount is unlikely. We forecast the contracted rate increase over the course of August up to 2-3% on the German domestic market.

France is already following the same direction, although less sharply. Spain is the main market to watch. If rates remain weak over the next few weeks, the result will point to structural changes in the market. British rates may remain firm, but their development should be viewed primarily in terms of capacity rather than diesel.

Capacity will also determine how much of the fuel increase carriers can recover. Seasonal factors made German domestic capacity more available during July, which may limit rate increases or leave carriers absorbing part of the additional cost. A rise in contract rejection rates would indicate that carriers are regaining pricing power.

The July fuel increase has therefore only started to reach contracted rates. Germany and France offer the first evidence, but most of the adjustment still lies ahead. The August readings should show how much of the higher diesel cost will be passed through to shipper rates.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)