European Spot Market: Finding the Bottom after a Volatile 2026 Market Entry

Market Monday - Week 5 - Spot prices remained surprisingly high

Today, I revisit and refine my perspective on the current sentiment in the spot market. This follows our capacity analysis two weeks ago and provides a narrative for the upcoming calmer market period until the Easter rush begins. Let's delve into recent market trends. The following chart illustrates the dynamics between spot and contract prices across all monitored markets, covering data from more than 100 country-to-country relationships in Europe.

Each data point represents the difference between spot and contracted prices (Index 100) for a specific week. Notably, in week 51 of 2024, spot prices surged 22.7% above contracted levels, repeated by a 22.2% increase in the same week of 2025.

The year 2024 has posed significant shipping challenges. Post-Easter, capacity constraints propelled spot prices beyond 2023 levels. This was primarily due to high carrier rejections, which forced contracted shipments into the spot market. After a short break in quarter 1 of 2025, the trend (green line) resumed its upward trajectory during the public holiday season in quarter 2. The second half of 2025 showed some relief compared to 2024, with lower spot price premiums in October and November.

A more detailed analysis of the market revealed that international markets are driving the current development. While domestic markets are more in line with, or even below, last year’s development, international markets show a significant premium.

Currently, the market is caught in a self-reinforcing cycle. Shippers are shifting volumes away from the spot market to avoid the higher prices there. However, the contracted segment’s prices fail to reflect current operating costs, limiting available capacity in this market segment (as reflected in our capacity metrics, such as contracted load rejections), and this is further exacerbated by moderate increases in transportation demand. Consequently, many shipments were moved to the spot market in December and January due to urgency, further inflating prices.

Some will ask whether this recent development persists and whether the traditional low spot price period in February is canceled. Luckily, I can ease this fear; we will surely experience spot price decreases and capacity to ease in February! On the other hand, I expect the February spot vs. contracted prices view to conclude higher than its 2025 counterparts.

Towards the end of March, as we approach Easter holidays, I expect spot prices to rise again after bottoming out in mid-February to the first week of March. Although the exact levels are uncertain for Easter, current market sentiment points to a significant peak, mirroring at least the 2025 level.

In summary, the spot market became very volatile in 2026. However, domestic markets appear ready to enter into their softer cycle, with international markets expected to follow shortly.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)