Europe’s Road Freight Outlook: Spot Premiums on the Rise as Seasonal Demand and Fuel Costs Compound
Market Monday - Week 13 - Spot prices initiate Easter peak
Since last week, we can clearly see how the European spot market for road freight reacted to recent disruptors. The market prices in this segment began to reflect skyrocketing diesel prices. But this is not the only reason; week twelve also marked the seasonal shift from the softer cycle into a busier period, as confirmed by increases in contracted load rejections and a corresponding decrease in available capacity.
The following chart illustrates the dynamics between spot and contract prices across all monitored markets, covering data from more than 100 country-to-country relationships in Europe.
Each data point represents the difference between spot and contracted prices (Index 100) for a specific week. Seasonality plays a role here: in week 51 of 2024, spot prices surged 22.7% above contracted levels, repeated by a 22.2% increase in the same week of 2025
2024 faced significant shipping challenges, with capacity constraints after Easter pushing spot prices above 2023 levels amid high carrier rejections, prompting a shift of contracted shipments to the spot market. After a brief pause in early 2025, prices resumed rising during the second quarter’s holiday season, though there was some relief in late 2025. International markets are driving these trends, with higher premiums than in domestic markets.
Q1 of 2026 confirmed this persistent upward trend, as spot prices, on average across Europe, remained above contracted prices and their 2025 counterparts.
The market will soon experience more pronounced exposure to the self-reinforcing price-increase cycle, driven by seasonal demand and sudden cost-increase factors (high energy prices). This self-reinforcing cycle is best described as follows: Shippers are shifting volumes away from the spot market to avoid the higher prices there. However, the contracted segment’s prices fail to reflect current operating costs, limiting available capacity in this market segment (as reflected in our capacity metrics, such as contracted load rejections), and this is further exacerbated by moderate increases in transportation demand. Consequently, many shipments will be moved to the spot market in April and May due to urgency, further inflating prices.
For two weeks prior to Easter, we expect the spot premium to climb towards 14%. Quick increases in contracted rates due to fuel adjustments, as seen last week, will mitigate spot price premiums. However, the seasonal uptick in demand pressure remains intact and will likely push the spot premiums to last year’s levels. A short-term dampening of transportation demand in response to the negative effects of the Middle East conflict is unlikely.
In summary, the coming weeks will be influenced by tightening capacity and surging energy costs, pushing spot rate premiums to last year’s levels or even beyond.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation