Ferragosto: When Spot Price Peak Meets Vacation Period
Market Monday - Week 35 - Spot price rise in Italy
As employees return to their desks after a nice summer vacation (or are about to depart like me), it's time to recap the recent transport market developments in one of the leading vacation destinations. Some countries are more affected by the summer season than others, and this week's edition of Market Monday will take a closer look at the spot rate trends in Italy.
In recent weeks and every year, the festivities around Ferragosto have been a dominant event in Italy. With many factories closing down and truck drivers taking their well-deserved summer breaks, the Italian transportation industry slows down. However, spot prices typically surge during these weeks and often mark a new peak. Urgent shipments during periods of low capacity drive peaks in spot prices, and as the chart below shows, this trend continues in 2025.
The Italian spot market traditionally has three peak times: around Easter, Ferragosto, and at year's end. The outbound index, averaging IT-DE, IT-FR and IT-PL spot price developments, showed higher volatility than domestic prices. Compared to 2021, outbound spot prices fell by 10% in 2023. The rebound in 2024 saw another rise in prices in 2025. The yellow dotted line represents the 2024 average; compared to that, a significant increase in spot prices is visible, year-to-date +8.4%.
Domestic spot prices saw lower volatility, mainly a sideways movement in 2023 and 2024, modestly above the basis of 2021. Recently, in 2025, an upward trend started, resulting in 2.5% above the 2024 average (grey dotted line).
International outbound business northbound, particularly transalpine, demonstrated significant spot price increases. This resulted from reduced capacity and the unattractiveness of carriers operating on these bottleneck routes due to operational hurdles, such as construction works or damage to bridges, tunnels and highways. The contracted load rejections, a capacity KPI, rose by 22.8% compared to 2024, confirming this perception of reduced outbound capacity.
Improved planning and backup options, such as intermodal or fast assignment processes, are key to mastering these market difficulties, particularly for outbound businesses. Urgent and unplanned transport needs on the spot market will likely result in high prices throughout 2025 and 2026.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)