Germany is Struggling to Keep up with Rising Demand Across Europe
Market Monday – Week 27– Driven Distance Surge Exposes German Domestic Freight Lag
May 2026 delivered the strongest European freight demand reading of the year. The Transporeon Demand Index for all industries reached 111.4 — well above the 36-month rolling average baseline and their year-on-year counterparts. Packaging demand surged to 118.9, FMCG to 116.3, and even the long-suffering construction sector held above 105. On the surface, this looks like a booming market rather than a depressed, dampened European economy.
Then you look at Germany’s toll mileage data. And the picture gets more complicated, or others would say economic reality stepped in.
The Driven Distance Index — another demand indicator we developed, which measures total distance covered by heavy-duty trucks relative to the 12-month rolling average, based on Transporeon Visibility Hub data — reached approximately 108-109 in May 2026, its highest reading of the year and above the equivalent month in every prior year tracked. This is a meaningful signal: trucks across Europe are covering more ground than their historical average. Combined with the Demand Index surge, it would be tempting to declare a broad-based recovery underway.
But the toll mileage data for Germany introduces a crucial contrast. The overall German toll mileage index for 2026 is significantly below the 2021/22 (booming economy) average and, throughout the year, even below the 2023-2025 (dampening economy) average. Although May flipped above the 2023-2025 average and shows improvement or even the beginning of a structural change, it remained significantly below the 2021/22 benchmark of 108 for the same month.
The cross-border toll mileage index for Germany tells a meaningfully different story. This index measures the tolled mileage on all border sections (in&out), hence it provides activity indications for transit, import and export movements. The cross-border tolled mileage in 2026 has tracked much closer to — and in May even above — the 2021 and 2022 average, indicating a booming environment compared to the 2023-2025 period. The divergence between the two series is the article’s central signal: Germany as a transit or import country is performing closer to historical norms, while Germany as a freight-generating economy is underperforming.
This distinction matters enormously for how we interpret the Demand and the Driven Distance Index’s signals and implications for the European transport market. European trucks are covering record distances in May 2026 — but this activity is happening elsewhere in Europe and not within the German domestic market.
European demand is genuinely recovering — the May Demand Index of 111.4 is not a statistical artefact, and sectors like packaging, FMCG, and paper are all running well above their 36-month averages. This analysis aligns with industrial production data and shows that Germany’s manufacturing sector is not yet contributing to European growth, while other economies are.
The cross-border toll mileage and Driven Distance Indices further indicate ongoing network changes across Europe, including the deindustrialization of Central-Western Europe. These structural movements and Germany’s unclear future industrial contribution will impact demand and, derived from it, the capacity availability. Should the trend continue, both transportation demand and capacity will decline in Germany, making the market more consolidated and less stable. Alternatively, in the long term, if the government implements measures to support German manufacturing, the effect could be the opposite. Somewhat paradoxically, only economic growth and increased transport demand will reduce capacity constraints in Germany. This uncertainty is adding another layer of headache to the strategic planning of transport-, logistics- and supply chain procurement professionals.
Christian Dolderer
Principal Domain Expert
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)