Heavy Truck Registrations Continue Downward Trend
Market Monday - Week 32 - H1 figures confirm ongoing capacity shrinkage, with more outliers emerging
We eagerly awaited the H1 2025 registration data to evaluate forward-looking trends. These figures serve as a key performance indicator for available transport capacity and mid-term market direction. This data sought to answer the primary question: Will the current downward trend be reversed, sustained or will it deepen? In our last post covering heavy truck registrations we discussed the Q1 of 2025 figures and their massive reductions year-on-year for the 3rd quarter in a row.
The following map illustrates how heavy truck registrations changed from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, revealing steep declines across most of Europe.
Most European nations saw registrations drop by more than 10% compared to the same period last year, with Greece, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Switzerland and France showing the steepest declines - all below -20%. However this time, not only Lithuania as in Q1, now also Luxembourg, Denmark and Estonia opposed this trend with the registrations growth. While H1 2024 registrations from a base perspective were relatively low in Lithuania, H1 2025 not only beats it but also reaches almost record high value, resulting in a very high relative increase. Girteka’s announcement to purchase 2000 new trucks for 2025 delivery is a strong contributor to this development.
Electric heavy truck registrations opposed the diesel and other (LNG etc.) trucks trends. In H1 their share in registrations increased from 1,1% to 1,5% compared to the previous year. But, this small increase does not yet represent a fundamental market change at the European level.
Although Q2 2025 values show a strong increase compared to Q1 of 2025, a persistent downward trend was anticipated and confirmed. The Q2’25 data is offering no signs of bottoming out or reverting to growth on European level. However, with some countries moving to the positive side, the picture becomes more diverse.
The short red lines highlight the Q2 values and show massive reductions YoY for Q2’ 2025. The dotted line, a 12 month rolling average, confirms the declining trend that began in 2024. Looking ahead, a very low Q3 2024 registrations base for the next quarter could allow Q3 2025 to become positive YoY and therefore stop the downward trend. If so it would likely be only a short relief as based on the current market sentiment I expect the downward trend to continue again in Q4.
While reliable de-registration figures are not available, our fleet model suggests that end-of-life trucks currently exceed new additions, assuming typical vehicle lifecycles.
Our Pro (paid) subscribers can look forward to a more detailed analysis regarding fleet development and short-, mid-, and long-term capacity implications to be published this Thursday.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)