Italy’s French connection: Why the second-largest export route is faltering
Market Monday - Week 23 - Why Brenner isn’t responsible for Italy's biggest capacity shift.
For years, the media and logistics experts have been fixated on the Brenner Pass. The blockage on last Saturday by residents is just one recent example of the constraints on this vital cross-alpine artery. The construction at the Luegbridge was expected to be the ultimate “bottleneck” for Italian exports heading toward Germany and Poland. However, new market data reveals a surprising shift: while the northern routes remained resilient, a structural crisis has quietly emerged on the Western axis toward France.
The Indicator: Why “Load Rejections” Matter
At the heart of this analysis are contracted load rejections—a crucial KPI reflecting available transport capacity. A surge in rejections indicates reduced capacity or a lack of attractiveness for a specific route. For the Italian exporter, this signals increased costs, delivery delays, and operational inefficiencies. By monitoring these rejections, market participants can anticipate shifts and refine their logistics strategies.
The Great Divergence: Brenner vs. The West
Reports and news in 2024 and 2025 discussed the potential disruption the industry might face due to construction work at Brenners’ Luegbridge. This prompted us to research whether a shift in capacity supply for the Northern Italian exports to major European countries became visible. In theory, the expected disruptions should have led to rising load rejections at destinations reliant on this most important cross-alpine artery. While we prepared ourselves for the impact that transports to Germany or Poland had faced, we were hit by a surprise:
The Northern Resilience: Rejections for Germany and Poland saw only a moderate increase.
The Western Surge: A dramatic spike in rejections occurred for transports heading into France, Italy’s second-largest trading partner.
In 2020 and 2024, rejections to all three destination countries followed the same pattern and exhibited expected volatility. In 2025, a structural decoupling of France from the others became visible. Although rejections for transports to Germany and Poland showed a seasonal surge at the beginning of May, the structural decoupling has persisted since then.
For visual purposes, Germany and Poland are combined into a single line on the chart, but both show similar movements and typical volatility.
Decoding the Shift: Why is this happening?
The most interesting, but also challenging, question is: How is it possible that the most feared bottleneck (Brenner) held steady while the French route faltered? What factors could have contributed to such an unexpected market behavior?
No single concise answer comes to mind that explains all these movements. Various factors consequently need to impact current rejection values.
Reduced demand for transportation towards Germany and Poland, while demand into France rose.
Significantly better operational processes, allowing more fluent traffic on the Brenner route than expected.
The high availability of intermodal options to Germany and Poland mitigated a significant road capacity effect.
The international fleet reduced its presence and eagerness to serve the Italian market, particularly for transports into France, or did not grow as needed.
The Vulnerability of “Foreign Wheels”
Eurostat figures confirm these fundamental structures. Data showed a 9.7% increase in tonne-kilometers for transports toward France between 2023 and 2024. If we assume accelerated growth in 2025, the demand is clearly there.
However, the Eurostat data also highlights a strategic vulnerability: International, Eastern Europe-based trucks account for 49.3% of these transports, while Italian and French carriers combined account for only 43%. This confirms a heavy reliance on a global fleet that, as it seems, is currently prioritizing other routes over the Italian-French axis.
Outlook for 2026
Combining all of this, we see a strong indication that demand for transport to France increased, while capacity provision and service levels decreased, as confirmed by the rejections measured in Transporeon Market Insights. For transports to Germany and Poland, initial fears proved unfounded, likely due to better-than-expected traffic conditions and suitable intermodal options.
Based on the most recent developments, we don’t expect changes to this structural change. For shippers and carriers, finding capacity to France will remain challenging for the rest of 2026.
Christian Dolderer
Principal Domain Expert
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)