Lock blockage without impact - but high rejections for eastern France and Luxembourg
Market Monday - Week 4 - Divergent capacity trends emerge
On December 8th, a barge damaged a lock in Müden near the confluence of the Mosel and Rhine rivers in Koblenz. This accident caused a major disruption by completely blocking the Mosel river for freight. Now, six weeks later, blocked ships have been released to the Rhine and a new door for the damaged lock is on its way. There is cautious optimism about reopening by the end of February - a month earlier than initial estimates.
The Mosel and Saar rivers are vital waterways for several industries, including steel production (Saarlouis and Saarbrücken), consumer goods (Mertert and Trier), and building materials into France. Since these goods rarely travel by road, we investigated whether this blockage affected general road transportation in the region.
To examine this, we analyzed our data in the affected postal code areas to identify any significant impact on road capacity provision. This analysis provides a market view rather than focusing on individual impacts on specific companies.
Source: Transporeon data
We identified the postal code areas in Germany that might be affected and analyzed the rejections on contracted transports in those areas. The chart compares weekly rejection in 2024 (bold line) against 2023 (dotted line). While showing structural changes, the data confirms that the lock accident has not disrupted the standard equipment road transportation market in this area.
Interestingly, a notable shift occurred in early December, when capacity conditions became more relaxed. Current rejections now align with 2023 values, following a significant gap through November. While this suggests a smoothing trend, it is premature to label it a sustainable structural change.
Given Germany shows no visible impact from the Mosel blockage, how does directly affected regions in France and Luxembourg look?
Source: Transporeon data
The data shows consistently higher rejections across both regions during this period. Despite tighter capacity in this part of France and throughout Luxembourg, the gap between current values and previous year values remains stable, indicating no additional impact from the Mosel blockage.
What does it mean?
Here's what we're seeing: While the Mosel lock accident hasn't visibly affected road transport, two interesting trends have emerged: First, Germany´s capacity situation is looking brighter than expected in this region compared to 2023's expectations for this period. Second, corresponding regions in France and Luxembourg face notably higher rejections and tighter capacity, with no signs of easing.
It will be interesting to see how capacity, particularly in Germany develops further. Was it just a coincidence that these postal code areas showed an easing, or is it the start of a new general trend? France and Luxembourg, they're staying true to course given the current market conditions. We will keep you updated on how these patterns develop!
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Transporeon