How to approach planning for Q4 2026? The Spot vs. Contracted Spread Forecast Has an Answer
Market Monday – Week 31 – Transporeon Market Insights data shows the spread holding at structurally elevated levels, the forecast does not promise a relief
A year ago, at Week 31, we reported almost record-high spot prices compared to contracted prices for major markets and flagged a structural capacity shift that widened the East-West divide. Twelve months on, the picture has only worsened. The spot-versus-contracted spread that defined summer 2025 has not only persisted into 2026, but it has also become the new normal, with the 52-week spread trend line now sitting firmly above 13%, and the expert forecast points at that level into autumn.
What was once a seasonal curiosity became a structural market condition.
The following chart illustrates the story. Since early 2024, spot rates across Europe have consistently traded above contracted price levels, with only a brief dip into negative territory in early 2024 as the sole exception. The peaks have been sharp and recurring: above 20% in spring 2024, spring 2025, and spring 2026, when the EU-level spot price index reached a new all-time high in May before easing back to 155 in July. What is new in 2026 is the trajectory of the 52-week moving average. That trend line (in green) has climbed steadily from near zero in early 2024 to 13.8% today.
What is driving this persistent elevation? The answer lies in the structural supply-demand imbalance that we have tracked throughout the year. Demand remains stable on a slow upward trajectory, while capacity remains the structural constraint.
Comparing Week 30 2026 to Week 30 2025 directly: a year ago, the spot premium was in a narrowing phase after the April-June surge. Today, the chart shows an equivalent narrowing. The summer 2026 premium is holding at levels comparable to last year’s. The 52-week trend line’s higher reading is grounded in the previous months and weeks. My expectations for spot premium values over the coming weeks are around 2025 levels, suggesting stabilization at peak levels. The expectations are consistent with the seasonal pattern of late-summer demand recovery colliding with constrained capacity as factories return from summer shutdowns.
For the future, two scenarios are the most likely. In the base case, demand will recover modestly by the end of August and September as industrial output picks up, capacity will remain structurally tight, and spot premiums will stay elevated in the 14-18% range through Q3, with contracted rates continuing their slow upward drift as carriers push for renegotiations. In another scenario of a sharper-than-expected demand softening driven by macroeconomic headwinds, spot premiums could compress toward the trend line (13%). A demand or spot cost booming scenario is rather unlikely in August and September; however, given the present uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, there is no scenario to fully ignore.
Christian Dolderer
Principal Domain Expert
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)