Poland Bucks Trend, Netherlands Leads in BEVs: A Mixed Q3 for EU Truck Registrations
Market Monday - Week 46 - Heavy truck registration figures remain down
At the end of October, ACEA published the latest registration figures for commercial vehicles in Europe. These figures serve as a key performance indicator for available transport capacity and mid-term market direction. In our previous post on heavy truck registrations, we discussed the H1 2025 figures and their significant year-over-year decline for the fourth consecutive quarter.
The following map illustrates the changes in heavy truck registrations from the first three quarters of 2024 to the first three quarters of 2025, revealing still predominantly significant declines across most of Europe.
Most European nations saw registrations drop by more than 10% compared to the same period last year, with Greece, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany showing the steepest declines - all below -15%. However, after Q3, not only did Lithuania, Luxembourg, Denmark, and Estonia oppose this trend, but registrations also grew, with Poland, a fleet heavyweight, joining the positive side, accompanied by Latvia. While Q1-Q3 2024 registrations from a base perspective were relatively low in Lithuania, Q1-Q3 2025 not only beat it but also reached almost a record high value, resulting in a very high relative increase. Girteka’s announcement to purchase 2000 new trucks for 2025 delivery is a strong contributor to this development.
Electric heavy truck registrations opposed the diesel and other (LNG etc.) trucks trends. Q1-Q3 BEV’s share in registrations increased from 1,5% to 1,8% compared to the previous year. But this slight increase does not yet represent a fundamental market change at the European level. Q3 isolated showed a 2,2% share in BEV registrations.
We noted a very interesting observation in the Netherlands, with a share of 11,2% for BEVs in Q3. Given the local AanZET purchase subsidy, which was activated in October for the purchase of new BEV trucks, we expect the Netherlands to further improve this share in the coming quarters. Also, Austria and Germany showed significant increases in their BEV shares.
The short red lines highlight the Q3 values and show a moderate YoY rise for Q3’ 2025. The dotted line, a 12-month rolling average, illustrates the declining trend that began in 2024. Although Q3 2025 values show an increase compared to Q3 2024, we anticipate the downward trend to continue in Q4. Based on the very low Q3 of 2024, we expected this increase. Looking ahead, a comparably high Q4 2024 registration base for the next quarter will likely result in Q4 2025 falling short, continuing the downward trend.
While reliable de-registration figures are not available, our fleet model suggests that the number of end-of-life trucks currently exceeds the number of new additions, assuming typical vehicle lifecycles. In this trajectory, short-term capacity reliefs, besides usual seasonal easings, become unlikely.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)