Road Transport Rates Surge by +30% in France
Market Monday - Week 21 - Investigating the real drivers behind skyrocketing freight rates
In recent weeks, the French road transportation market experienced record-high spot prices, eroding the 2022 peak levels. This marks an interesting trend and prompts questions about the underlying causes. April & May 2026 saw several weeks with a +30% increase in spot rates compared to the same weeks in 2025, a remarkable uptick well above any external shock premium. In this analysis, I examine the reasons for the price shock and outline the factors that influence it.
Spot prices are heavily influenced by the market forces of demand and capacity. When demand increases, the market typically experiences reduced capacity and increased inefficiencies. This dynamic is reflected in two key indicators: contracted load rejections and the number of offers per load on the spot market.
For better visualization and alignment of the development of the contracted load rejection index with the spot offers index, rejections are displayed inverted in the graph. Therefore, the decreases in this graph for rejections and spot offers both indicate lower capacity and correlate with the price increases.
This chart highlights the divergence between capacity indicators (rejections and offers) and spot price development, showcasing a typical market reaction during capacity tightness. With both capacity indicators declining significantly and inverted rejections persistently below previous years’ levels, we almost certainly see a capacity squeeze as the reason for the recent surge in spot market rates in France.
One would say: What about the high diesel prices due to the Strait of Hormuz blockage? What’s their contribution to the increase, or what effect do they have on the market? Well, the market is impacted directly by pure diesel increases, but also indirectly in various ways, such as:
Higher usage of the contracted market due to significantly lower and delayed price increases compared to spot (as indicated by surging rejections)
Liquidity pressure on the carrier side due to high diesel prices vs. delayed price adjustments, worsening the financial situation of carriers and increasing the risk of bankruptcies
The gold-shaded area in this chart shows the spot price premium compared to the same week in 2025. While a clear distillation of the Strait of Hormuz blockage’s impact on the spot market in France is not possible, we can quantify the direct diesel price (+41% YoY) impact using our total cost of ownership (TCO) model. Week 20 showed a spot price premium of 35,6% compared to 2025, where diesel prices should only account for 10,8 percentage points.
The weeks are also comparable from a public holiday perspective; in fact, 2025 had a slightly less favorable constellation, with May 8th on a Thursday instead of Friday in 2026. Taking this into consideration, the capacity-squeezing environment this year is shaping the market with a premium of around 25%, accelerated by a diesel premium of 10%.
As this premium is mostly capacity-related, a near-term drop of spot prices to 2025 levels or slightly above, even if diesel prices return to 2025 levels, is impossible. France will likely continue to experience very high spot prices through the summer. And this is not a France-only event; we see a similar pattern across many other major European transport markets.
Christian Dolderer
Principal Domain Expert
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)