The "Backhaul" Advantage is Melting on the UK-Poland Lane
Market Monday - Week 8 - Recent changes mark a structural move
For years, the United Kingdom to Poland lane has been a classic “backhaul” market. Shippers moving goods eastbound have enjoyed significantly lower rates compared to the premium lane into the UK, as carriers priced aggressively just to reposition assets and return drivers closer to their home bases.
However, recent data signals a structural shift. While the Poland to UK leg remains the dominant, higher-priced direction, the massive pricing gap between the two is shrinking, and the discounts taken for granted for many years are disappearing. The current UK to Poland rate index has increased by approximately 17% compared to the same point in 2025, rising steadily throughout the year. For reference, the overall Transporeon European Contracted Price Index has increased only by 4% over the same period and the headhaul direction (PL to UK) has remained relatively flat year-over-year, showing only minor 2% growth despite short-term volatility around holiday periods.
To understand what lies behind this shift, we must look at the changing trade balances and carrier behaviors that are no longer supporting eastbound freight with subsidies.
The most explosive driver is a correction in the trade balance. Analysis of the latest UK Department for Business and Trade factsheets reveals a growth story that is effectively helping to soak excess capacity. Comparing the four quarters ending Q3 2025 versus the previous year:
UK Exports to Poland (Goods): Up 26.4%
UK Imports from Poland (Goods): Up only 2.4%
Export to Import Ratio (Goods): Up to 68% from 53%
Beyond raw volume, the haulage market is becoming increasingly specialized. We witnessed the emergence of carrier pools that either specialize in cross-channel traffic or avoid the associated customs and travel authorization paperwork entirely. These specialized carriers are increasingly reluctant to travel to the UK without a secured backhaul, or to accept rates into mainland Europe that fall below direct costs - a sharp departure from the days of opportunistic truck movement. This trend is further cemented by the slow but steady consolidation of the carrier market in both countries, driven by the insolvency of smaller, less resilient operators.
Furthermore, the “home advantage” is pulling capacity away. With stronger domestic demand and better yield opportunities now available within Poland (or on neighboring intra-EU lanes), the incentive for Polish carriers to send trucks to the UK is diminishing. The border friction and limited cabotage opportunities in the UK simply look less attractive when profitable work is available closer to home.
In the mid-term, expect the UK to Poland market to remain firm. Momentum is strong, and until Poland-to-UK volumes pick up significantly to inject more capacity into the UK market, eastbound space will remain tighter than usual. It is crucial to recognize that capacity is tightening not because of a lack of trucks, but because those trucks are finding better utilization elsewhere in Europe.
Long-term, supply chains or business models built on the reliance on subsidized freight from the UK to Poland will likely face continued pressure. As the trade imbalance between the two nations continues to reduce, the “backhaul” concept will increasingly fade, replaced by a more balanced and more expensive rate reality.
Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant