The Imbalance Index: Why Poland and the UK Stabilized While Sweden Reset

Market Monday - Week 6 - Similarities and differences between three of the key European markets

As we settle in 2026, the European freight market is coming into a somewhat stable phase influenced more by long term structurally lasting effects and less by events unfolding in real time, with broader Eurozone economy being cautiously optimistic - inflation was tamed near the 2% target and GDP growth forecast increased to around 1.2-1.4%.

I find this time suitable to look at steady evolution of most prominent examples of “rate-imbalanced” markets, which show steady rate gaps between Import and Export directions, and let us know the basic stories of volume and geography constraints. While imbalances themselves are usually structural and determined by static factors, their evolution over time allows us to see more nuance in how the macroeconomic tale unfolds. Logic suggests should tell that significant political, economic and regulatory shifts seen in recent years should have made a visible change in the existing balances.

In logistics, the price of a truck delivery is rarely just about fuel and driver wages; it is a sensitive barometer for the structural health of an economy. The “rate imbalance” (the pricing power gap between the Export (Outbound) and the Import (Inbound) legs tells a deeper story than flow volume alone. It also reveals how an economy evolves and interacts with its neighbors. When a market is mature, this imbalance stays stable. When it fractures, as seen in the last three years, it should expose the clash between macroeconomic realities and regulatory friction. But was it the truth for several textbook examples of imbalanced markets?

Composite indices of existing outbound/inbound rate imbalances per country

The three charts above are built utilizing contracted rates data from Transporeon Market Insights, harmonized to index level of 100 for 1 January 2023. Increase of the index means that the ratio of inbound rate vs. outbound rate increased, while stable index shows that the ratio remains the same. Dotted lines illustrated 3-year’s trendline.

Fundamentally, transports into Sweden and the UK, and from Poland are significantly more expensive than their opposite direction rate counterparts. While two markets of Poland and United Kingdom trended to the relative equilibrium, Sweden has undergone a more significant upward correction.

Poland and the United Kingdom end of results to keep near the baselines was achieved through opposite circumstances. Poland represents stability through connectivity. As the continent’s logistics hub, Poland faced significant headwinds, including the EU Mobility Package’s home base return rules in 2023, which threatened to flood the market with empty capacity. However, the market absorbed this shock. Strong industrial demand and the war in Ukraine helped Poland to remain a key hub within Central and Eastern Europe, keeping demand for returning trucks afloat. When the return rule was significantly relaxed in late 2024, regulatory threat evaporated. Poland’s line reflected market maturity, showing a market where capacity is not being sent away, but efficiently repositioned.

The United Kingdom represented stability through execution. The post-Brexit reality threatened to leave logistic providers empty, but industry’s resilience and adaptability helped to catch the tipping scales and turn the market to self-sufficiency. High but stable administrative barriers have chased away the volatility with time. The route is now shaped by specialized hauliers and unaccompanied trailer flows that bypass driver complexities. The UK’s flat trendline isn’t a sign of a dynamic hub, but of a fortress market where friction is priced in, where the import-export status quo is maintained.

Sweden stands as the outlier, tracing a distinct “V-shape”. In 2023, the index declined, a movement best understood as a normalization from the overheated post-pandemic peaks. As the Swedish economy entered a recession, with GDP shrinking and household consumption battered by inflation, demand for incoming freight cooled. The drop was not a sign of dysfunction, but of a cooling economy. The trend reversed in early 2024, marking the start of a structural widening of the gap between inbound and outbound rates. This rebound was assisted by the introduction of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) for maritime transport in January 2024, which raised ferry costs, a critical input for Swedish logistics. As private consumption and demand recovered, the index climbed back to parity, signaling a market that has successfully priced in its new regulatory and economic reality.

The most recent data confirms that while the “hubs” and the “islands” can maintain stability through inertia, peripheral markets can be the first to break under regulatory pressure, and the fastest to heal when it is removed.

Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant