Transport Demand and Driven Distances signal Economic Rebound in Europe
Market Monday - Week 17 - Driven Distance Market Indicator shows upward tendency for Europe
Two weeks ago, I analyzed transportation demand and discussed why it is currently the most influential factor. In that post I also predicted an increase in demand in the coming weeks and months. Several readers agreed with my view and also predicted a slight increase in transportation demand.
Today, I`d like to present a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) that I use for interpretation and assessments in this context - the Driven Distance Market Indicator. This KPI measures the total distance a truck covers in a month compared to the average of the past 12 months. It is based on real-time visibility data, allowing me to judge movements beside the loaded transports executed on our platform. When two different databases confirm a potential trend towards more activity, it boosts our confidence in a trend. The following chart compares this metric over the past two years.
Driven Distance Market Indicator Europe
Source: Transporeon Real-Time Visibility
While we can’t directly compare year-to-year, we can derive a trend on it. Values above 100 indicate more distance driven in a given month compared to the past 12-month average. While values below 100 indicate less. Individual monthly values, influenced by the last 12 months, show a trend compared to the previous months. By adding data from the past two years, we can also assess the seasonality within a year. Considering this, we can conclude that truck activity increased in February and March compared to last year.
Now, with two indicators - driven distance and transportation demand - showing signs of increases compared to the same time in 2023, I am confident that we have moved past the era of decline. From an European perspective, it seems likely that economic growth is on the horizon. While we may not reach the levels of 2021, we have moved past the trough of disillusionment.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst