Two Continents, Two Realities: How Fleet Reductions and Economic Headwinds Are Redefining Road Freight
Market Monday - Week 9 - Diverging Freight Capacity Trends in the US and Europe
I’ve been following recent developments in the US freight market with great interest. News, comments, and analyses about rather (for that time of the year) unusual demand increases and capacity reductions were all over my feed. This prompted me to research, based on Transporeon data, a US equivalent of our European road freight capacity index and how this compares to Europe.
The capacity Index, although also based on transactional data, aims to show and explain the overall market sentiment regarding available capacity. Analogously, it can be described as the climate rather than the weather on a specific day. By comparing with Europe, I expect to gain greater transparency into why markets moved and behaved differently in the past.
2022 showed the expected capacity squeezes for both regions, followed by a surge a few months later. Interestingly, in the US, capacity recovery started 4 months earlier than in Europe. 2023 marked the year we reached the highest capacity in both areas, but after Q1 of 2024, a decoupling trend emerged. In the US, available capacity remained high and continued to increase through Q4 of 2025, creating a favorable market environment for shippers and brokers. In Europe, by contrast, capacity shrank steadily, as shown in the trend line. This trend continues into 2026, following a brief period of stabilization in 2025.
From my perspective, carriers in Europe reacted promptly, reducing their fleets as margins vanished and operational costs surged. This challenging environment also manifested in increased carrier bankruptcy figures. As transportation demand in Europe further declined in 2024 and the first half of 2025, fleet reductions are the most likely explanation for the continued capacity shrinking. In comparison to the US a less favorable market environment for shippers and brokers.
The recent capacity drop in the US may reflect several things, besides the often-mentioned increase in transportation demand. I also see very harsh weather conditions, as shown by the chart’s weekly downticks in 2026. However, the supply side likely reacted as well; new heavy truck registrations shrank significantly in 2025, and January 2026 figures continued this trend. Reduced investments in new fleet or fleet modernization could signal a fundamental shift in the persistent capacity-excess trend. Although capacity index figures show a recent decline compared to 2021 or 2022, trucking capacity remains highly available in the US. In my view, it’s currently more a psychological shock than a fundamental one after years of demand exceeding capacity.
What do I expect for the coming weeks? For the US, I foresee capacity easing from the lows already reached in 2026, and the same for Europe, as we are in a seasonal soft period. Based on the fundamental shift in supply in the US, I anticipate a reduced capacity throughout 2026, so far mostly due to carriers’ reactions and business discontinuations rather than significant demand increases, particularly after the recent Supreme Court ruling and tariff uncertainties. In Europe, I expect rising transportation demand to push 2026 capacity down in the mid-term period.
Two continents with a tight economic relationship, but for years, with different transport market sentiment.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Transporeon