Vitrine* for the future of trucking in Europe
Why sustainable solutions should not always be more expensive
A long-held belief in logistics has been that the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) advantage for Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) trucks over their diesel counterparts was a future goal, with present operations being only a sacrifice in favor of sustainability goals or for a fancy claim at executive meetings. Seeing that, we decided to test the claim and looked across Europe for a market that seems ready for large-scale BEV adoption. Considering geography and market specifics, we will showcase this with the Netherlands.
The main finding is that on domestic routes in the Netherlands, BVs are already technically feasible and approaching cost parity with their diesel counterparts. With the upcoming new toll system from Q3 2026, they will achieve parity and, in some cases, surpass it. This shift isn’t happening in a vacuum or only in the Netherlands. It is the direct result of a combination of national incentives and overarching EU policies designed to make zero-emission logistics not only the smart choice but also a financially sound one.
Our proprietary TCO model was fine-tuned to include BEV and local specifics. To ensure the analysis reflects real-world conditions, it was calibrated with several key assumptions for BEV operations:
BEV Specifications: The model assumes a next-generation BEV truck equipped with a larger 600 kWh+ battery, capable of handling longer routes.
Charging Strategy: A strategy of overnight, at-premise charging was used, supplemented by opportunity charging during mandatory driver breaks. This approach allows a BEV to achieve a daily operational range parity with a diesel truck.
Real-World Routes: The calculations were based on Dutch domestic routes, sampling movements between Rotterdam-Amsterdam, Botlek-Groningen, and Alkmaar-Eindhoven.
Local Incentives: Costs considered Dutch incentives for BEVs, including the AanZET purchase subsidy and potential tax breaks for environmental investments. The governmental subsidy aims to address the price gap between a new zero-emission truck and its diesel equivalent, lowering the depreciation cost and making the investment far more palatable for carriers.
Energy Costs: A conservative commercial electricity price of 0,24 EUR/kWh was used. It’s important to note that real-world operators can achieve even lower costs through wholesale purchasing or on-site renewable energy generation. Diesel price forecast used for Q3 2026 was 1.58 EUR/l.
The CO2-Based Toll: The upcoming Dutch truck km-based toll (Vrachtwagenheffing) will start in July 2026. Most diesel truck will fall into CO2 Class 1, paying the highest rate and BEV trucks fall into CO2 Class 5, partially exempt from toll until at least 2030.
More on the new Dutch toll implications:
Most of the other parameters, like backloading potential in domestic operations, were assumed to be equal for both types of traction.
The data revealed a clear story, that for a shorter 87 km trip, a diesel truck’s TCO has a 6% cost advantage over a BEV. For an average 170 km trip the costs are almost equal, with only 1% advantage in favour of fossil fuel solution, but for a longer route of 270 km with 240 km on tolled roads, BEV truck becomes the more economical choice with 2% cost advantage over diesel truck from Q2 2026.
This inversion is mostly driven by two key lower operational costs: energy and tolls, which favor electric solutions in day-to-day operations. These recurring, kilometer-by-kilometer savings allow the BEV to outperform diesel on longer domestic routes.
It is important to highlight that while these specific lanes were used for modeling, the Netherlands’ compact geography and flat terrain, combined with the operational range of modern BEVs, mean that in principle, nearly any domestic route can be a fit. The key variable is not feasibility, but the TCO tipping point, which our data shows is primarily a function of distance and toll exposure.
One thing that was not yet considered, but will impact the calculations even further in favor of BEV trucks, is that starting from 2027, the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2) will impose an extra carbon price on fuel for road transport. We described the system and its implications in our recent article, with the key takeaway for the Netherlands of an extra possible effect of +0,10-0,12 EUR/l on fuel price.
So, by starting to switch to BEVs now, carriers are not just choosing cheaper energy; they are hedging against the future volatility of carbon pricing. The financial case for electrification will soon be clear not only in the Netherlands. The final question is one of practicality: can these trucks actually run the long-haul routes? The short answer is almost, and we are slowly getting to surely there.
While today’s public network in the EU is insufficient for flexible, large-scale EV hauling, the landscape will be radically different by 2027-2028. The EU’s AFIR mandate legally requires a dense network of high-power charging stations every 60 km on major corridors. With further deployment of megawatt charging systems, it would allow a driver to add 300-400 km of range during a standard 45-minute break. This combination of policy and technology aims to solve the infrastructure challenge in real-time. Our estimate is that the BeNeLux countries, Switzerland, Austria, large parts of Germany and France already have or should have enough public charging opportunities to support long-distance BEV trucking in the near future, with some other EU regions and countries not far behind.
With the financial case solidifying and the infrastructure challenge being solved, the focus shifts to practical implementation. For shippers interested in procuring less polluting transport, now is the time to take the next steps:
A) Develop a cooperation with your most trusted carriers by setting strategic goals and co-authoring a multi-year roadmap. Committing to clear, long-term sustainability goals helps carriers de-risk the significant capital investment required to shift their fleet to BEV solutions.
B) Perform network analysis and work with your carriers to identify the most promising lanes for initial electrification. These are typically high-volume, stable short and medium-distance flat-terrain routes with potential for on-premise charging solutions (or opportunities for overnight charging) where the TCO benefits of BEVs are maximized first and cost advantages are clear.
C) Offer volume commitments on specific green lanes or as a share of allocated volume with carriers to provide the revenue certainty and flexibility needed for carriers to confidently invest in new assets. However, try to avoid any major rate premiums unless sustainability goals prevail over economic efficiency.
D) Adjust operations, as the project’s success or failure can depend even on minor adjustments. Be open to discussing flexible loading/unloading windows to accommodate overnight charging or collaborating on data-sharing to optimize routes.
*”Vitrine” means “Showcase” in Dutch language
Oleksandr Kulish
Senior Consultant