Why This Year’s Upcoming Seasonal Ease Masks a Tightening Market
Market Monday - Week 3 - Capacity figures reveal an interesting movement in December
First and foremost, Happy New Year!
Today, we’re back with Market Monday after our short break. Typically, within the first days and weeks of the year, people think about what it might bring and if it will be comparable or better than the last. In terms of transportation, it is clear to me that available truck capacity will play a key role in shaping the market. That’s why I’ve revisited our analysis of the seasonal trends for contracted load rejections and spot market offers. They are our primary indicators for short-term truck availability and serve as a barometer of what lies ahead in the coming months.
We have just completed the busy year-end weeks, and the return to work still influences the market. With most of Europe having concluded the winter holiday period, we are now entering a time of relaxed transport capacity.
We have likely reached the typical rejection peak and will pass it this week, with values expected to decrease rapidly towards the middle of February, following its usual seasonal pattern. Spot offers will increase again in turn.
So far, the charts have moved as expected.
What is really interesting and key to understanding potential future capacity trends and levels is the comparison to the previous year (highlighted in blue). This reveals a surprising twist for both metrics. While the number of offers and rejections at the end of November fell short compared to 2024, they increased significantly in amplitude in December and January compared to their counterparts from weeks 51-1, indicating even lower lows in 2025.
Looking ahead, the deterioration of available capacity in 2025 compared to 2024, which we monitored during the summer, paused in October and November but appears to have re-emerged now. If this trend persists, we expect to see its effects in the coming months, such as a downward movement of capacity in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the 2025 development, signaling a further structural drop in available capacity.
Will these recent developments cancel the typical seasonal easing in capacity and spot market prices? The answer is no, but we are likely to see capacity below that of recent years, and consequently, spot prices will be above it.
In the coming months, we should therefore prepare for more active spot market dynamics and ongoing pressure on transport prices in the second quarter. The next crucial point for evaluating macro capacity trends, during the lead-up to the holiday season, will be after Easter, in mid-to-late April.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)