Capacity Alert: Why the Strait of Hormuz and Carrier Bankruptcies are Redefining the Index
Market Monday - Week 15 - Accelerating downward capacity trends in the US and Europe
Six weeks ago, I shared my analysis regarding the different developments in road freight capacity between the US and Europe. Today’s update revisits this KPI to provide strategic insights and guidance, and to identify possible mitigation actions for all involved parties.
The capacity index, although based on transactional data, aims to show and explain the overall market sentiment regarding available capacity. Analogously, it rather describes the climate than the weather.
In this analysis, I will focus on recent developments, differences from past periods and future implications. For the full historical discussion and narrative, please revisit the previous article:
The US trucking market faces the highest available capacity reduction in years, as confirmed by the current index value of week 14, which marks a 3-year low. The trend line exhibits a downward tendency, given last years’ high readings, a stabilization or even rather unexpected significant rebounds won’t change one evident fact: The trucking capacity in the US structurally changed after years of capacity exceeding demand. All three components of the capacity index confirm this trend: reductions in offers on the spot market, increases in tender-rejection rates, and sharp declines in new vehicle registrations in the US manifest the shift that began at the end of 2025.
The million-dollar question is, at what level will it stabilize? Will the Strait of Hormuz closure dampen transportation demand and mitigate further potential capacity reductions? In this environment, it is not easy to answer or predict; however, the effect on the market is clear for a potential capacity index value around 100. On one hand, transport prices will adjust, and spot prices will lead. On the other hand, an index value of 100 will still ensure market functionality and all goods will be moved, but at different price levels. Shippers with efficient processes to limit carriers’ downtimes will likely benefit from lower cost increases.
In Europe, in contrast, we left the typical soft period and are approaching the busy period, with numerous public holidays and usual seasonal capacity constraints. However, the trend line shows a downward slope, and it has accelerated recently. Year-on-year, accounting for the Easter-based shift in weeks, we are currently 7 index points down. So far, there is no measurable and demand-dampening effect on the capacity index due to the Middle East turmoil.
Recent news, such as the bankruptcy and liquidation of the French branch of Ziegler Group and the associated closure of numerous sites, highlights the challenging financial situation carriers are still in. The unfortunate ripple effects of this bankruptcy could eliminate more trucking capacity than Ziegler in France accounted for.
The financial pressure based on high diesel prices and the corresponding liquidity gap on the carrier side will prevent them from making fleet investments, which is also true for the US. My earlier expressed hopes in a capacity-mitigating increasing fleet investment literally sank in the Strait of Hormuz.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Trimble Transportation (Transporeon)